Reply #61: If they cut back, it may be in heavy, sour grades that most refineries

[amandabeech]

cannot handle. The Saudis have a lot of this stuff around that they can't sell.

It may also mean that keeping up 28 mpbd for any length of time is difficult for the group. It may put strains on equipment and manpower, and damage reservoirs if kept up too long.

Meanwhile, TWIP shows a 600,000 bpd drop in imports last week, perhaps as a result of the trailing off of emergency shipments from Europe. It will be interesting to see if that drop off continues, and whether further drops will ensue when the Japanese stop their shipments.

It is also possible that the drop in distillates reflects the decline in emergency shipments. Some of that product was in distilled products, and Europe, facing a cold winter, needs the distillates for heating.