Reply #17: Let me clarify

[CounterCoulter]

"Extra" unemployed refers to the additional number of people unemployed at 8% versus 6% unemployment. Let's say that figure is 2 million people. 40% of those people would vote Republican as long as there is air in their Jesus-fearing lungs. 45% will vote Democratic regardless, as well. So that leaves at most 300,000 swing voters left unemployed by Bush. Suppose, generously, that 70% of them vote. That's 210,000 people. Then suppose, again generously, 90% vote (D). That is only 180,000 votes nationwide that Bush is going to lose due to a higher unemployment rate. Clearly, not enough to make a huge difference.

This election is going to boil down to Bush saying the economy (not to mention the wars) are going great versus the Democrats saying, no, in fact, it's terrible. They'll both have their own relevant statistics--the question is which side will the public believe? The problem with unemployment for Republicans is that it is a hard number to "cook" the book on. The people are out there, and sampling would reveal cooked books fairly quickly. For Democrats the problem is convincing the 90+% of the population that have jobs that unemployment DOES matter.

My earlier point is that if there is even a hollow recovery, we are fucked. If unemployment makes people pessimistic, rosy forecasts make people optimistic--and while a hollow recovery doesn't help bush with the unemployment issue, it does give him a big spoonful of optimism that people with jobs will probably lap up and beg for more. Remember the sheeple's response to "Morning in America"?

Democratic strategists have their work cut out for them. They need to convince employed voters that 1) High unemployment matters and could affect them, 2) Bush's rosy economic books are cooked liked Kenny-boy's, and 3) they have to hope like hell the real recovery waits until at least late into the election season.

Oh, and "Democratically" was a tongue-in-cheek response to Fox News' efforts to refer to the Democratic Party as the "Democrat Party" lest people begin thinking that there is something more democratic about Democrats than Republicans.