Reply #4: IEA Raises 2nd-Half Demand Forecast, Straining OPEC

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June 10 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 countries, raised its forecast for oil demand in the second half, signaling greater strains on OPEC's capacity to ensure supplies as consumption peaks in the fourth quarter.

Global demand will reach 86.4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the IEA said in monthly report today, up 200,000 barrels a day from its prediction one month ago. That means the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to pump 29.6 million barrels a day in the final quarter, 300,000 a day more than expected last month, the IEA said.

OPEC members ``are producing at close to capacity,'' Jeff Brown, the IEA's oil demand analyst, said in an interview from Paris. ``Hopefully by the end of the year the pressures that we see will ease.''

Oil futures remain above $50 a barrel as OPEC nations increase output to build inventories to ensure supplies are ample for use later this year. Traders are concerned about tighter supply during the Northern Hemisphere's winter months, when heating fuel consumption will peak, and constraints in oil- refining systems.

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