You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #77: Benefit of the Doubt Creates Confusion [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Latest Breaking News Donate to DU
pandemic_1918 Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-05 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #76
77. Benefit of the Doubt Creates Confusion
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:34 AM by pandemic_1918
No, assuming that someone diagnosed will live simply creates confusion and misrepresents the facts. WHO and CDC did this with SARS. They generated an artificially low case fatality rate by counting newly diagnosed patients (most CFRs are calculated after the outcomes are known), and then when the hospitalized patients began to die the rate started to go up. But it was artificial. If you just counted known outcomes (deaths and discharges), the rate was steady.

It is even more absurd for Marburg in Angola because the there are no survivors. As the the infections spread and those coming into the hospital exceed those leaving (dead), the rate appears to come down.

The rate is supposed to indicate the chances of dying from the disease, and those chances do not decrease when people enter the hospital more quickly.

Right now the case fatality rate in Angola is at or near 100%. The true rate cannot fall without recovered patients, and at this time there are NO reported recoveries (maybe 1 in February - but not likely).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
  -Marburg Toll In Angola Explodes to 200 pandemic_1918  Apr-07-05 03:51 PM   #0 
  - I have heard that children are making up a large % ...  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 03:57 PM   #1 
  - This one is particularly bad because the Angolese government  Warpy   Apr-07-05 04:05 PM   #2 
  - We're all only one (relatively) short plane ride away from any disease  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 04:07 PM   #4 
  - Marburg Has Spread to Zaire  pandemic_1918   Apr-08-05 02:58 AM   #25 
     - Just so we are clear here  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 02:25 PM   #84 
        - It could just as easily be the country of Zaire.  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-09-05 08:22 PM   #87 
        - Marburg in Zaire  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 02:36 AM   #93 
           - Marburg Death Toll Tops Ebola  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 09:53 PM   #110 
  - Marburg Transmitting in Luanda (have plane, will travel)  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 12:55 AM   #54 
  - Airborne Transmission of Marburg  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 02:38 AM   #94 
     - Airborne Transmission  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 11:25 AM   #100 
        - Here is a link to the infection control  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 02:43 PM   #107 
  - Reuters Headlining WHO Operations Halt = Luanda Panic  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 10:55 AM   #80 
  - Now Its Adults in Luanda Slums (has airport)  pandemic_1918   Apr-07-05 04:16 PM   #6 
     - Aside from my compassion for the people there...  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 04:26 PM   #7 
  - this is a really nasty thing to catch  hadrons   Apr-07-05 04:06 PM   #3 
  - Marburg Transmitting in South Africa?  pandemic_1918   Apr-07-05 05:34 PM   #16 
  - With life expectancies going up,  dxdem   Apr-07-05 04:09 PM   #5 
  - If there is any "good news" ...  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 04:29 PM   #8 
  - Coughing - 12 Health Care Workers Dead  pandemic_1918   Apr-07-05 05:18 PM   #15 
     - Really? I'm relying on "old" knowledge...  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 07:13 PM   #17 
        - Sanitation Doesn't Travel  pandemic_1918   Apr-08-05 01:15 AM   #22 
           - Oh God, Thanks for keeping me updated ...  etherealtruth   Apr-08-05 06:40 AM   #28 
              - No Marburg Testing South Africa  pandemic_1918   Apr-08-05 10:56 AM   #29 
  - Nature always tries to find a balance.  Dave Reynolds   Apr-07-05 04:39 PM   #9 
  - Hopefully they will be able to identify the reservoir...  Sufi Marmot   Apr-07-05 04:46 PM   #10 
  - My recollection is that they been searching for the  megatherium   Apr-07-05 04:56 PM   #12 
  - This is my understanding also...  Sufi Marmot   Apr-07-05 05:12 PM   #13 
  - Identifying the reservoir isn't enough.  frustrated_lefty   Apr-07-05 08:01 PM   #18 
     - My best friend's lab partner in college died from Hanta virus  Squeegee   Apr-07-05 08:51 PM   #20 
     - I realize that...  Sufi Marmot   Apr-08-05 01:36 AM   #23 
        - There is an account of a Hanta outbreak in Argentina I think it was  Jose Diablo   Apr-08-05 12:45 PM   #35 
        - Just a note:  frustrated_lefty   Apr-09-05 07:30 AM   #63 
        - Hanta broke in 1993, I think  hatrack   Apr-09-05 08:33 PM   #90 
        - Your understanding is on the money.  frustrated_lefty   Apr-09-05 07:28 AM   #62 
        - Finding the reservoir is necessary  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 08:30 PM   #89 
  - Anyone read The Hot Zone,  megatherium   Apr-07-05 04:53 PM   #11 
  - It was a good read n/t  etherealtruth   Apr-07-05 05:12 PM   #14 
  - There was another similar book out at around that same time.  davsand   Apr-07-05 08:39 PM   #19 
     - Wish you could remember that title.  megatherium   Apr-07-05 10:10 PM   #21 
     - try "The coming plague"  Cronquist   Apr-08-05 01:38 AM   #24 
        - Thanx -- I remember seeing that book. nt  megatherium   Apr-08-05 11:20 AM   #30 
     - Sorry to break it to you,  frustrated_lefty   Apr-09-05 07:37 AM   #67 
     - The 100% fatality rate of THIS Marburg virus is bothering me a LOT....  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-10-05 10:55 AM   #99 
  - Reposting from addition to earlier thread  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 05:20 AM   #26 
  - Is it known whether there are multiple independent initial infections?  Sufi Marmot   Apr-08-05 12:34 PM   #33 
  - That Congo gold mine had been taken by rebels  MetaTrope   Apr-08-05 12:37 PM   #34 
  - using simple math  truthisfreedom   Apr-08-05 05:44 AM   #27 
  - Im a layman here, so help me out.  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 12:05 PM   #31 
  - Marburg is real nasty, but  Jose Diablo   Apr-08-05 01:01 PM   #36 
  - Ahh some good info thank you! But which one at this point is more of  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 01:27 PM   #37 
  - A person could go nuts just trying to think about all the "What Ifs".  Jose Diablo   Apr-08-05 01:40 PM   #38 
  - captain tripps was the flu, ya'll  amazona   Apr-10-05 12:08 PM   #102 
  - As for who is more scary, the antichrist of tripps?  Jose Diablo   Apr-08-05 02:13 PM   #39 
  - I do believe youre pretty much right.  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 02:41 PM   #41 
     - As for Trashcan, I think he is the most interesting character in the  Jose Diablo   Apr-08-05 05:26 PM   #45 
        - No way Jose! (sorry had to)  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 08:10 PM   #48 
  - "Chain letter of death"  dansolo   Apr-10-05 12:55 PM   #103 
  - For whatever reason, this version of Marburg appears to have....  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-09-05 01:20 AM   #55 
  - I hate to be the bearer of bad news but here's what CDC has to  Matriot   Apr-09-05 11:42 AM   #81 
  - There is a difference between  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 03:53 PM   #85 
  - I think Steven King called it Dr. Tripps  obxhead   Apr-10-05 01:32 PM   #104 
  - Here are some links to an earlier thread  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 04:47 PM   #43 
     - Thank you very much Sharon!  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 08:03 PM   #47 
     - Ages, other factors  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 08:53 PM   #51 
     - I stand corrected about it being a truly airborne virus and  Matriot   Apr-09-05 07:50 PM   #86 
  - Link to map of Angola  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 12:27 PM   #32 
  - Maps  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 04:28 PM   #42 
  - This bit from the WHO website is troubling...  Sufi Marmot   Apr-08-05 02:25 PM   #40 
  - Yes, it is  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 04:55 PM   #44 
  - Uige Residents Killing Health Care Workers  pandemic_1918   Apr-08-05 06:17 PM   #46 
     - Hoo boy! (N/T)  sharonking21   Apr-08-05 08:28 PM   #50 
     - Is that good or bad or both???  frictionlessO   Apr-08-05 09:49 PM   #52 
     - Bad  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 07:27 AM   #61 
     - Has this ever been confirmed?  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 11:50 AM   #101 
  - It's a fairly deadly disease...  robcon   Apr-08-05 08:25 PM   #49 
  - Case Fatality Rate is Near 100%  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 12:34 AM   #53 
  - I don't accept the alarmist site you linked to.  robcon   Apr-09-05 06:57 AM   #57 
     - WHO Figures  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 07:32 AM   #65 
     - WHO Site on Marburg - Case Fatality Rate Higher than Previous 80%  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 09:16 AM   #97 
        - Any word on the 9 quarantined in Italy?  there-s a   Apr-10-05 09:56 AM   #98 
           - The articles about the isolation  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 02:49 PM   #108 
              - Isolation,you're right,my mistake,not a quarantine.  there-s a   Apr-11-05 08:20 AM   #112 
  - That rate of 23-25% is not even remotely close to what's happening....  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-09-05 01:26 AM   #56 
     - I accept the cdc before the recombinomics site.  robcon   Apr-09-05 06:59 AM   #58 
        - Please see this earlier explanation about case fatality rates  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 07:25 AM   #59 
        - Math Made Easy  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 07:26 AM   #60 
        - That's untrue, pandemic_1918  robcon   Apr-09-05 07:31 AM   #64 
        - The Congo outbreak CFR is more like it, but  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 07:57 AM   #69 
        - No Survivors = 100% Case Fatality Rate  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 08:28 AM   #74 
        - 99.4% is More Than 80%  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 08:20 AM   #71 
        - CDC should update their site  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 08:21 AM   #72 
        - Red Cross Data on Monthly Fatalities - 100% CFR  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 09:32 AM   #79 
        - The other 20% just haven't died yet.  Silverhair   Apr-09-05 08:38 PM   #92 
        - Globe & Mail Says 98% Case Fatality Rate in Uige  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 03:08 AM   #96 
        - 231 cases = 210 dead + 21 ill (what's missing)?  pandemic_1918   Apr-13-05 07:34 PM   #113 
        - Actually it applies to Western Europe  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 07:35 AM   #66 
           - Nosocomial infections....  frustrated_lefty   Apr-09-05 07:42 AM   #68 
           - Yup  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 08:09 AM   #70 
           - Marburg in Eastern Africa is Not Marburg in Angola  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 08:23 AM   #73 
              - Yes there have been small outbreaks in Eastern Africa  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 09:01 AM   #76 
                 - Benefit of the Doubt Creates Confusion  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 09:26 AM   #77 
                    - CFRs  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 12:47 PM   #83 
                       - Show us a link that discusses any survivor of this Marburg strain...  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-09-05 08:36 PM   #91 
        - Believe what you want to believe...we'll go on with this thread anyway.  Media_Lies_Daily   Apr-09-05 08:28 PM   #88 
  - This is interesting  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 08:49 AM   #75 
  - Dirty Needles - Childhood Vaccinations  pandemic_1918   Apr-09-05 09:29 AM   #78 
     - question  justsomegirl   Apr-10-05 02:40 PM   #106 
        - Lots of Virus  pandemic_1918   Apr-10-05 09:51 PM   #109 
  - Age of initial cases  sharonking21   Apr-09-05 12:37 PM   #82 
  - Lack of Marburg Virus Survivors Creates Civil Unrest in Angola  norml   Apr-10-05 02:50 AM   #95 
  - Updates, WHO resumes operations in Uige  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 02:30 PM   #105 
  - NYTs: Training Is First Task in Deadly Outbreak  sharonking21   Apr-10-05 10:02 PM   #111 
 

Home » Discuss » Latest Breaking News Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC