A Great Year in 2005?

December 16, 2004
By Tony Porco

The 2004 results are in, and they're bad for Democrats. We all know what comes next - endless media speculation that the Democratic party, and progressivism in America, are in the last throes of death. Of course, this speculation is patently unfair, since Republicans had lackluster or disastrous years in 1986, 1992, 1996, 1998, and 2000, and no-one ever said that they were dying. Fair or not, however, the predictions go on.

Fortunately, liberals aren't taking this lying down. Lots of people are already figuring out ways to sharpen the progressive message, keep building on the enthusiasm we generated this year, and win in 2006 and 2008. It's good to think about the future, but we don't have to wait that long for a success that will help build our side's morale and show the pundits that we can win. We have a big opportunity only one year away - the odd-year election of 2005.

Will anyone care about what happens in an odd-year election? That's a good question, but the answer is definitely yes. Odd-year elections have attracted much more attention in recent years, and are now considered predictors of what will happen in the future.

The much-ballyhooed 1993 election, in which Republicans won all three of the biggest prizes, was widely considered a harbinger of the huge Republican gains in 1994. Similarly, the defeat of the first George Bush's attorney general, Dick Thornburgh, in a special election for a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 1991 was a premonition of Bush's own defeat a year later.

If that kind of success seems unimaginable now, keep in mind that the Democrats won two of the three major races in 2001, at the height of George W. Bush's post-September 11 popularity. Furthermore, the 2005 contests will be fought on mostly-favorable terrain. Here is a rundown of the three major races:

NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR

The Garden State has proven itself a Democratic state in the last several elections; we have a real opportunity here. Democratic Gov. James McGreevey stepped down on November 15, and was replaced by State Senate President Richard Codey. The Republicans will try to make hay out of the sex scandal that forced McGreevey out of office, and McGreevey's subsequent revelation that he is gay (if we learned anything from the 2004 race, it is that conservatives will never hesitate to gay-bash if it will get them a few votes), but the McGreevey resignation will be a distant memory this time next year.

The media are hoping that comedian and registered Democrat Joe Piscopo decides to run, but popular Sen. Jon Corzine is currently the strongest Democratic candidate. Many Republicans are running in the primary, but the most likely nominee is former Jersey City Mayor and red-meat rightwinger Bret Schundler, which should help the Democrats, since McGreevey easily beat Schundler in 2001.

The high cost of car insurance in the state, a positive issue for McGreevey in 2001 and in his earlier near-win in 1997, should take center stage again, which will help Democrats as well.

NEW YORK MAYOR

This race is also a great opportunity for the Democrats, although it's by no means an easy win. Michael Bloomberg, the city's Democrat-turned-Republican mayor, has had a troubled term, and has never been able to capitalize on the great popularity of his predecessor and mentor, Rudy Giuliani.

While he will certainly spend vast amounts of money on his re-election, that doesn't mean he is unbeatable. Some people think that former president Bill Clinton, who now has an office in the Big Apple (although he doesn't live there), will move into the city and throw his hat in the ring, but the more likely Democratic candidate is Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, who polls well against Bloomberg.

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR

Yes, I know it is hard to believe, but Virginia is a real opportunity for Democrats. The current Democratic governor, Mark Warner, won in the very pro-Bush year 2001, and has remained popular despite pushing for a tax increase last year. (It helped that the increase was supported by many Republicans in the state legislature, and that it was widely considered necessary to avoid horrid budget cuts in popular programs.)

Warner is term-limited and cannot run again. Fortunately, his lieutenant governor, former Richmond Mayor Tim Kaine, is an attractive candidate who has also already won his own statewide race, since Virginia voters elect governors and lieutenant governors separately. Unfortunately, his most likely opponent, Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, has also won statewide, and is also highly regarded.

This will be a tough race, but Warner's success in attracting rural voters should give Democrats a lot of hope. John Kerry's performance in the state is also a good sign; it was one of his best in the South. Kerry carried all but one of the state's large cities, along with its largest county (Fairfax, in Northern Virginia); he also outpolled Al Gore in the growing Washington DC exurbs and carried some rural counties. Even Kerry's statewide percentage of the vote was an improvement over 2000.

We all know that the 2004 general election generated a lot of excitement and enthusiasm among liberals, and saw the strengthening of groups like America Coming Together and MoveOn. Here is my question: What would happen if this enthusiasm was sustained and directed into these three winnable races next year? What would happen if MoveOn made them a priority? What if we won two out of the three races? What about all three?

A win in 2005 will not change what happened in 2004, nor will it produce a major realignment of American politics. Still, it has the potential to be a great year for progressive Democrats - a year when we celebrate some real successes, build our side's morale, and remind the press and the opposition that we haven't gone anywhere.

It can be a year when we prove we still have the toughness to fight hard and win electoral battles. We can go into the midterm election of 2006 with that much more confidence, that much more momentum, and that much more of the cash and volunteer muscle that come with them.

Let's make 2005 a great year!

Tony Porco lives in the Washington DC suburbs with his family. His travel writing has appeared on the Bootsnall web site, and his poetry has appeared in several literary magazines.