The
Beginning of the End?
April
6, 2004
By Michael Shannon
Mark
your calendar: 04/04/04, the day the Iraqi house of cards
stamped Made in America collapsed. That it has collapsed hardly
comes as a surprise. The only surprise is that it stood for
as long as it did. Nor will it be a surprise if the administration
apologists in Washington and elsewhere, as well as their alter
egos in Baghdad, try to dismiss the events of this bloody
Sunday as representative of the "up-tick" in insurrection
which they have long anticipated as the date for transfer
of political authority draws ever closer.
But doing so will be nothing more than whistling past the
graveyard. As anyone with eyes, both on the ground in Iraq,
or reading a newspaper or watching television anywhere else
can plainly see, this is the manifestation of the nightmare
scenario for the American occupation.
Rearguing the merits of the invasion of Iraq are long since
moot. What is obviously of continued pressing concern is what
are we going to do now. As the events of the past several
days clearly show, our options are as few as they are lousy.
First off, pulling out is simply not one of them. Regardless
of how ill-conceived the rationale for war with Iraq was,
now that we are there we are not leaving. Who resides in that
big fancy house on Pennsylvania Avenue will have little impact
on that reality. There is far too much at stake, and we have
already paid far too high of a price in blood and treasure,
for any President to simply cut and run. So, what do we do
now?
Of course, there are some who argue at the top of their
lungs that we should respond with overwhelming military force
to crush the insurrection before matters get completely out
of control. This was particularly the response advocated in
the immediate aftermath of the brutal slaying and desecration
of the bodies of four American private security agents in
Fallujah. But as horrible as that despicable act was, and
as problematic as Fallujah has been since the very first days
of the occupation, if that was the extent of the challenges
facing the American high command, things would still be semi-manageable.
If the American political and military command does authorize
a full-scale assault on Fallujah in retaliation for the inhumane
treatment of our people, they will be faced with battling
a hostile population in their own backyards. As any military
tactician will tell you, street fighting in an urban environment
can be the most difficult and costly assignment any force
has to face. But as daunting as this challenge is, suddenly
with the eruption of violence in cities from one end of Iraq
to the other, it now seems to be only one of many such deadly
challenges facing the young men and women of the American
Armed Forces.
It has long been believed by military/political analysts
that as long as the Shia went along with the occupation then
the American plan would be viable. As the Shia make up approximately
60 percent of the Iraqi population, their cooperation has
been central to the success of any American strategy. Now
that they have joined the battle, all bets are off.
It has been proven hundreds of time in the course of history:
no indigenous population can be dominated by an outside force
if they choose not to be so dominated unless the occupying
force applies a continuous and maximum application of lethal
force. And even with such an application, unless the native
population is reduced to levels which are barely able to support
regeneration - ie. the American Indian - it is only a matter
of time until the suppressed population reasserts its right
to self-determination. What we are now seeing in Iraq is that
the battle is no longer being waged by small numbers of holdouts
from the Sunni-dominated Baath party, or even smaller numbers
of Islamic jihadists, both from within Iraq and from the surrounding
Muslim states.
Rooting out a band of people responsible for any number
of the horrific acts of terrorism which have taken place against
non-military targets over the past year in Iraq is one thing.
Going into a city and taking on entire segments of the population
is completely different, both in scope and effect. Few would
argue that seeking to bring to justice people who bomb mosques,
hotels or other "soft" targets is not a justifiable application
of force. Trying to find justification to suppressing a nationalistic
uprising is a whole different ball of wax.
The struggle to control/pacify Iraq has never been about
a majority of the Iraqi people. Historians estimate that during
the American Revolution one third of the populace was supportive
of the revolution, one third remained loyal to the King and
the other third just tried to stay out of the way. Using that
same ratio with a population in Iraq of approximately 26 million
people and the numbers become very chilling indeed.
The United States, a nation which has long, and rightfully
so, taken great pride in its track record as a liberator from
tyranny, is now in the eminently unenviable position of trying
to suppress a nationwide insurrection waged against it as
the foreign occupying power. This is something that we have
tried only a few times in our history. And we all know how
it turned the last time we were so blinded by hubris to put
ourselves in a similarly wretched position.
Contact Mike at [email protected]
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