2016 Postmortem

nxylas

(6,440 posts)

16. This poll is very much an outlier

Fri Aug 3, 2012, 09:39 AM

Aug 2012

Most polls have Obama around 3 points ahead. Best not to fall into the trap of cheering a single poll just because you like the results. I generally find Real Clear Politics's poll averages more reliable than any one poll. I'll want to see a few more polls like this one before I break out the champagne.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

47 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Pew Research Poll: Obama 51 - Romney 41 [View all] Tony_FLADEM Aug 2012 OP

Pew was actually the most accurate poll in 2008 Downtown Hound Aug 2012 #1

Thanks for that encouragement there. freshwest Aug 2012 #8

link? Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2012 #11

... Downtown Hound Aug 2012 #35

So how was Pew more accurate than Rasmussen in 2008? Marzupialis Aug 2012 #15

Rasmussen is a joke. DCBob Aug 2012 #17

Both Pew and Rasmussen were close Downtown Hound Aug 2012 #36

Huh? did Pew even poll any states in 2008? Marzupialis Aug 2012 #39

Yes, and it's because they were both close on the nationals. Downtown Hound Aug 2012 #40

Maybe you don't remember because you never read it Marzupialis Aug 2012 #42

Go look it up your damn self if it's that important to you Downtown Hound Aug 2012 #47

As I've said before, no candidate can win with their favorability that far underwater. Fozzledick Aug 2012 #2

Clearly, Obama's strategy to drive MittWitt's unfavorables up is working. speedoo Aug 2012 #3

Are Independent and Democrat Registrations going up? Broderick Aug 2012 #4

People are finally seeing the real humbled_opinion Aug 2012 #5

It would be a nightmare for most people cheezmaka Aug 2012 #12

And what about the Senate? Left Coast2020 Aug 2012 #37

I don't beleive humbled_opinion Aug 2012 #38

I think if this lingers into the fall.... WCGreen Aug 2012 #6

Hope nothing happens between now and November, manufactured by the GOP dirty tricks machine. freshwest Aug 2012 #9

I hope not either cheezmaka Aug 2012 #13

Keep Looking Up! Thanks! freshwest Aug 2012 #14

They'll probably try something at some point, but........ AverageJoe90 Aug 2012 #33

I remain cautiously optimistic. However, I also remain nervous about the amount of $$$ yet to be... Tarheel_Dem Aug 2012 #7

senate Stooge Aug 2012 #10

This poll is very much an outlier nxylas Aug 2012 #16

It's not a 'likely voter' poll, not even a registered voter poll....they polled wiggs Aug 2012 #18

That's false. The poll is among 1956 Registered Voters Marzupialis Aug 2012 #19

They reported the results in a confusing fashion, because they said pnwmom Aug 2012 #21

Two problems. They polled adults and registered voters (not likely voters) and SlimJimmy Aug 2012 #24

how do you figure 19%??? Broderick Aug 2012 #25

You're correct. I got a bit quick on the calculator. It's a 2 to 1 margin in this particular poll. SlimJimmy Aug 2012 #26

Why do you say he's pulled out of PA? qwlauren35 Aug 2012 #41

I read that he pulled advertising out of there to focus on more competitive states Broderick Aug 2012 #44

Dude, the Romney vs. Obama question was among RV, not just adults Marzupialis Aug 2012 #43

Learn to read what I wrote, then get back to me ... dude. SlimJimmy Aug 2012 #45

I read somewhere that this poll sample included significantly more Democrats pnwmom Aug 2012 #20

2 to 1 Broderick Aug 2012 #23

There are real good reasons the GOP is desperate to stop us from voting. aquart Aug 2012 #28

I saw some stats a few weeks ago, but I can't find it now. Sigh. From memory. Broderick Aug 2012 #29

+1 SlimJimmy Aug 2012 #46

Nate Silver's adjustments of Pew poll show 4 point national lead for Obama Ira Aug 2012 #22

C'mon, Mitt. Open your mouth. Say something. aquart Aug 2012 #27

He's a platitude Broderick Aug 2012 #30

He can't... cheezmaka Aug 2012 #31

Please take this with a grain of salt - Dems were oversampled Stargleamer Aug 2012 #32

Thanks for the link... shaayecanaan Aug 2012 #34