Obama leads Romney 50-46 in new Democracy Corps poll (had led 49-46 last time).

[longship]

6. Well. We agree that it is looking good for Obama.

As I wrote in my previous post, past political history is irrelevant. Totally.

The only thing that really matters is this year, because that's the political environment we are in now.

Looking for patterns in previous elections is generally rubbish. It is stuff which makes many, high paid pundits a lot of high paid consultancies. But it is all smoke and mirrors.

This election is happening in a unique political and cultural environment. Like all other such events, the results are subject to the environment in which it takes place.

What happens this November will be a product of these influences. And those influences are new and unique.

Anybody claiming to be able to predict the 2012 election from previous ones is peddling rubbish. They may as well speak in quatrains.

Obama will likely win. But I would not predict that. Because this year's election is happening in an environment I have never seen in my 64 years.