In the discussion thread: Larry Sabato: "most people who claim to be independent really are not" [View all]
Response to CobaltBlue (Reply #19)
Mon Jul 23, 2012, 05:26 PM
Drunken Irishman (27,526 posts)
24. Your points are cool, but not really valid...
What Woodrow Wilson did 100 years ago is not relevant to this election. Each election acts in a vacuum, really, and what happens in one election doesn't necessarily hold true for the next.
As for Obama winning without winning Florida & Ohio - I never said he would. I said he could theoretically lose either (not both) and still win the presidency - Bush couldn't. Had Bush lost Ohio in '04, Kerry would've won. Likewise, had Bush lost Florida in '04, Kerry would've won. Obama can lose Florida and still win. He can lose Ohio and still win. Hell, and this is unlikely, he can lose both and still win. It's not my prediction, of course, just saying what can and cannot happen.
What you need to do is step back and realize things change and part of that change is the electoral college. Prior to '92, California was a Republican-leaning swing state & Vermont and New Hampshire rarely, if ever, voted Democratic.
Now? All three are solid Democratic states. Just because history says one thing doesn't mean today won't be about the other. In reality, Obama's lead in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia kind of put less weight on states like Florida & Ohio - who both Gore & Kerry needed to win in '04 to have a chance at claiming the presidency. This electoral map is far more diverse than anything Kerry faced four years ago. Because of that, Obama's path to victory is far bigger than Romney's and because of that, the odds of him having a landslide electoral college win is huge, as well.
Just look at the election simulation votes based on state polls:
Obama wins an average of 89% of the time and with more than 300 electoral votes in the average, mean and most common outcome.
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Replies to this discussion thread
|Wounded Bear||Jul 2012||#10|
|rufus dog||Jul 2012||#12|
|Drunken Irishman||Jul 2012||#17|
Your points are cool, but not really valid...
|Drunken Irishman||Jul 2012||#24|
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