HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » Larry Sabato: "most ... » Reply #15

Response to DCBob (Original post)

Mon Jul 23, 2012, 02:05 AM

15. Holding one's own

There are differences between self-identifying Republican, Democratic, or independent from the actual vote.

Exit polling in 2008 shows the breakdown in every state. A party that does a better job holding its self-identifiers will likely take the state.

An example of failure is with the Democratic Party in West Virginia. From that state's first election, in 1864, W.Va. had voted for all winning Democrats except Woodrow Wilson's second election, in 1916, and Barack Obama, in 2008. Reason why Obama didn't have a chance in W.Va., when it came to the vote, was that only 69 percent of the 48% self-identified Democrats actually voted for him to carry their state; meanwhile John McCain garnered 92 percent of the 34% who self-identify as Republicans. And 58 percent of the 19% who self-identify as independent having voted for McCain is why the maverick carried W.Va. by over 13 percentage points (near status quo to 2004 George W. Bush while the country moved nearly 10 points Democratic for Obama).

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 27 replies Author Time Post
DCBob Jul 2012 OP
leveymg Jul 2012 #1
unblock Jul 2012 #2
DCBob Jul 2012 #3
leveymg Jul 2012 #5
DCBob Jul 2012 #7
leveymg Jul 2012 #11
freshwest Jul 2012 #26
Demit Jul 2012 #4
DCBob Jul 2012 #6
WI_DEM Jul 2012 #8
BarbaRosa Jul 2012 #9
Wounded Bear Jul 2012 #10
rufus dog Jul 2012 #12
Odin2005 Jul 2012 #13
graywarrior Jul 2012 #14
LineReply Holding one's own
CobaltBlue Jul 2012 #15
EmeraldCityGrl Jul 2012 #16
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #17
DCBob Jul 2012 #18
CobaltBlue Jul 2012 #19
Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #24
Xyzse Jul 2012 #20
surrealAmerican Jul 2012 #21
Xyzse Jul 2012 #22
Comrade_McKenzie Jul 2012 #23
Robbins Jul 2012 #25
Kalium Sep 2012 #27
Please login to view edit histories.