Rasmussen: Romney ahead by 13 in Arizona

[Rosanna Lopez]

11. Romney has an 87% chance of winning

I don't think the Democrats should give up on Arizona - it's just that it's unlikely they can win it this year. Bill Clinton's win in 1996 proves it is doable again with the right candidate and combination of factors all coming together in the same year. The Latino population has also grown since Clinton won and so there is a larger source of Democratic votes there than there was 16 years ago.

However, Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 87% chance of winning Arizona, so that's why I think it may have to wait until 2016 or beyond. I think the problem may be the contentious atmosphere of 'us' versus 'them' that has developed in AZ. Obama is viewed by much of the non-Latino population as being out of touch with the border/immigration issue or just plain anti-AZ. That's why I think it may take a different Democratic nominee to win AZ.

It also appears that Carmona is not polling as strongly against Flake as people had hoped, but we'll see if that tightens over the Summer.