If Romney wins all four of those states and wins all of the mccain states he gets 266. That includes the 1 vote from NE. But if Obama holds swing states like NH,CO,NM,NV,WI,IA,PA, and MI then he wins. I do not think Romney will win all five of those states, but it is possible. As for your scenario I think is reasonable. Of the three southern states that Obama won I think VA is his best shot. As for your tossups I think MT will go for Romney because of the Mormon population. AZ we have a shot, but again the mormons will come out there. we shall see.
Behold, a virgin shall be with child, and shall bring forth a son, and they shall call his name Emmanuel, which being interpreted is, God with us. Matthew 1:23