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2016 Postmortem

In reply to the discussion: Newt won because... [View all]

kurt_cagle

(534 posts)
8. Newt takes the South
Sun Jan 22, 2012, 02:08 PM
Jan 2012

Certainly the big three of South Carolina, Florida and Georgia, probably Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, NC and VA likely tossups.

Romney is a Yankee, even if he is supported by the Texas oil establishment - the Mormon issue is a factor, but regionalism trumps religion here. Romney takes most of the Northeast, Texas, California. Gingrich takes the Rockies except for Utah, and the Midwest gets split up between Romney and Gingrich, with Santorum taking Indiana. Ron Paul slowly accumulates a lot of 2nd and 3rd place wins, not enough to gain the nomination, but enough to be able to be a power broker.

Way I see it, no one comes into the convention with a clear majority, perhaps not even a plurality. In the end, I still think it will be Romney with the largest absolute vote count - outside of the deep south most Republicans despise Gingrich nearly as much as they do Obama - but there will be a lot of horse trading at the convention itself.

All of which is probably good news for Obama. He's actually managing at this stage to be positioning himself as the adult in this election (which is even funnier given that he's younger than all but Santorum), and while support for Obama will likely be tepid compared to 2008, too many democrats are energized to come to the polls for other reasons this year.

Newt won because... [View all] MyUncle Jan 2012 OP
I think Caribou Barbie's endorsement helped as well. LonePirate Jan 2012 #1
Yes, Palin helped him. MyUncle Jan 2012 #2
Newt should reward her by asking Palin to be his VP /nt think Jan 2012 #10
Or next wife. n/t renie408 Jan 2012 #18
Agreed, except for that Florida is hardly neutral. Atman Jan 2012 #3
Well, that and proprietary software electronic voting machines, from which we'll never know how valerief Jan 2012 #4
They (SC whites) have never gotten over Sherman burning their state to the ground coalition_unwilling Jan 2012 #5
He won because the republican base likes him. He is rude, racist and hateful. Perfect fit. AlinPA Jan 2012 #6
He won because graywarrior Jan 2012 #7
Newt takes the South kurt_cagle Jan 2012 #8
Going to be hard for Newt to take Virginia since he's not on the ballot onenote Jan 2012 #12
Thought is was because Romney forgot his lapel pin: think Jan 2012 #9
More to the point it was that Gingrich came across as feisty and Romney didn't onenote Jan 2012 #11
The tea partiers customerserviceguy Jan 2012 #13
Even Republicans don't like Mitt Romney grantcart Jan 2012 #14
Newt won because Romney is a loser... spin Jan 2012 #15
Post removed Post removed Jan 2012 #16
Enjoy your stay.... MyUncle Jan 2012 #17
A) spellcheck is your friend and B) WHY do you guys keep harping on something that has been proven renie408 Jan 2012 #19
Let's face it...I hate to say this, but Newt won because South Carolina Republicans are racist. renie408 Jan 2012 #20
I stand by my original assertion. MyUncle Jan 2012 #21
dont have to register for party affiliation in s.c. a1webb Jan 2012 #22
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