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In the discussion thread: If Hillary doesn't run in 2016, [View all]

Response to Beacool (Reply #68)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 12:12 PM

70. I think it would depend on how he sees his chances

If the election was November of THIS year, he very likely would not - because polling seems very very clear on that. But the election is NOT this year.

For either to win the Presidency, you have to assume that Obama's second term is successful. If it isn't, the likelihood is for a Republican win if they nominate someone not on the extreme right. Now, imagine that Biden continues to get and succeed with high profile, important efforts. He already is credited with being the man who managed the Iraq drawdown, monitored the stimulus, negotiated the year end tax deal and is now leading the effort to determine what can be done on gun control.

If he is in good health, I could imagine him running - as he did in 1988 and 2008. In 2004, he explored the possibility and found little support and opted to wait. There is no "my turn" issue here that would make him defer to Clinton. For either it would be the very last chance to become President.

It may be a moot point if only one still wants to commit to a race, but if both do - unless the polls are as clear as they are now, I really do not think EITHER owes it to the other to stand down. It could put Obama in an awkward position where he may just stay neutral.

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LineLineLineLineLineReply I think it would depend on how he sees his chances
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