2016 Postmortem

NPolitics1979

(613 posts)

103. Kerry's Senate Term does not expire in 11/2014.

Sun Jan 6, 2013, 01:40 PM

Jan 2013

Whoever wins the 2013 Special Election- ie Markey,Frank,Capuano,Lynch,or Downing will be running for a full 6 year Senate Term in 2014. Markey or Capuano will be serving in the US Senate- assuming they win the Special Election and win the 11/2014 election for no more than 3 terms.
Downing-D if he wins the Special Election(Primary and General) will be serving in the US Senate for at least 3 decades.
Looking at the US House Delegation
Markey-D has 36 years seniority, Neal-D has 24 years seniority, McGovern-D,Tierney-D,Capuano-D and Lynch-D have 13-18 years of seniority. Tsongas-D,Keating-D and Kennedy-D have less than 5 years seniority.
If Markey-D,Capuano-D or Lynch-D give up their US House Seat to become US Senator-MA will lose between 12 to 36 years of seniority in the US House.
MA former US Senators (Kennedy-D and Kerry-D had a total of 75 years).
MA Other US Senator Elizabeth Warren is likely to run for President in 2016-assuming Hillary does not run or be Joe Biden's VP runningmate or she runs and wins re-election in 2018, -during Warren's 2nd term becomes Senate Democratic Leader after Reid-NV and Durbin-IL leave. Warren-D runs for a 3rd term in 2024. In 2030- Warren-D will have to decide if she wants to run for 4th term at the age of 81. Joe Kennedy Jr. becomes Warren's successor in the US Senate.
Markey-D will be a backbench member of the US Senate during his first term in the US Senate. He runs for election in 2020 then retires in 2026.
Deval-D should appoint a young rising star Democrat that not only could win the 2013 Special Election but could remain in the US Senate for 3 decades. Kennedy-D and Kerry-D ran for President after 20 year service in the US Senate. Kennedy-D ran in 1980- lost in the Democratic primary, remained as the most powerful member of the US Senate for another 30 years.
Kerry-D ran for President in 2004- lost in the November General Election- became chair of the Senate Foriegn Relations committee in 2009 will become Secretary of State in 2013 to retire from politics in 2017. The next MA US Senator should be capable of running for President in 2028 and if he loses the Presidential Election - he remains in the US Senate for another decade. Ben Downing.

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I adore Barney Frank... [View all] RudynJack Jan 2013 OP

Agree and agree. gateley Jan 2013 #1

The Senate has a lot of work to do in the next 5 months and it hard to campaign SharonAnn Jan 2013 #9

You have a point, but I still lean toward getting him into the seat and then it gateley Jan 2013 #43

Markey won't get appointed dsc Jan 2013 #2

Can you explain RudynJack Jan 2013 #3

I think the law specifies that the appointee can't run dsc Jan 2013 #4

I don't think so... RudynJack Jan 2013 #5

Technically he can, but he won't Hippo_Tron Jan 2013 #6

How did last time work out? allrevvedup Jan 2013 #39

You get it. RudynJack Jan 2013 #44

Incumbents do their job while running for re-election over a period of years, not months Hippo_Tron Jan 2013 #79

If Governor Patrick throws away this appointment, that's his choice. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #89

The question boils down to... RudynJack Jan 2013 #91

Markey's problem is making sure he wins the Special Election 6 months after he gets appointed. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #7

That's a lot hedge-betting. RudynJack Jan 2013 #8

Governor Patrick is the one who makes the decision who gets appointed to the seat. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #10

I'm aware of who makes the decision. RudynJack Jan 2013 #11

I believe that Gov Patrick said he will NOT appoint anyone that intends to run for the seat... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #12

And Rep. Markey won't RudynJack Jan 2013 #13

Barney Frank does NOT want to run for the seat, he is volunteering only... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #14

I understand what you're saying RudynJack Jan 2013 #15

Gov Patrick does not want to appoint anyone that is going to run... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #17

You didn't provide anything RudynJack Jan 2013 #20

Markey would be stupid to give up his House seat before winning the primary. n/t Tx4obama Jan 2013 #21

And he's less likely to RudynJack Jan 2013 #22

We will have to agree to disagree. Tx4obama Jan 2013 #24

That's where I'm at. Little Star Jan 2013 #101

Exactly. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #40

But Coakley was not appointed... RudynJack Jan 2013 #45

Right, and if she'd run as an incumbent allrevvedup Jan 2013 #47

The MA US Senate vacancy law originally changed in 2004 to prevent Romney-R from appointing NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #92

Okay thanks. Here's what I googled up as current Mass election law: allrevvedup Jan 2013 #95

I was mentioning the Deval's selection for the Kennedy seat. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #97

Based on that appointment, the Dem special election candidate seems the better choice, allrevvedup Jan 2013 #99

I have another perfect solution. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #100

Barney Frank is retiring, he's seventy. He is happy to fill in, but if he wanted the job he would MADem Jan 2013 #27

Is Markey down with that? lonestarnot Jan 2013 #16

I have no idea RudynJack Jan 2013 #18

Frank said that BEFORE he knew that the fiscal cliff spending cuts were going to be ... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #19

OK RudynJack Jan 2013 #23

Have a great weekend. n/t Tx4obama Jan 2013 #25

He's not being condescending--he's being accurate. MADem Jan 2013 #29

Of course he's being condescending. RudynJack Jan 2013 #30

Your main point is not clear--you seem to be confused about what Patrick and Frank have said. nt MADem Jan 2013 #32

I don't know how to make it clearer. RudynJack Jan 2013 #33

I don't know how to make THIS clearer. MADem Jan 2013 #37

Sorry you feel that way. RudynJack Jan 2013 #46

You keep saying that incumbency is a big advantage. What are the stats on re-election of Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #59

In the last 10 years the election rate has been 6/6 or 100% allrevvedup Jan 2013 #62

But you are leaving out the several who did not even bother to run, that is not honest... Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #66

They aren't relevant to the question, allrevvedup Jan 2013 #67

Good lord. The OP claims that Frank should not be interim because incumbency is a 'big advantage' Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #70

OP claims " Incumbency has a lot of advantages." Stats show that it does. n/t allrevvedup Jan 2013 #71

No, the stats do not show that it does. Stats show that it sometimes does, sometimes harms Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #76

If they don't run, they don't count. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #78

Coakly was not an appointee. The appointed interim Senator from MA did not run. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #81

Bingo. n/t allrevvedup Jan 2013 #84

They don't run because the voters do not wish to elect an appointee. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #86

Appointed folks running in a general election is different than a short term interim senator... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #104

Are you including IL-assuming Blagojevich had not got caught. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #93

NO. The governor has already said he will only appoint a placeholder--not a candidate or potential MADem Jan 2013 #26

And Frank has already said he wouldn't take the job RudynJack Jan 2013 #28

Barney never said he would not take the placeholder job. It didn't exist until MADem Jan 2013 #31

You're mistaken. RudynJack Jan 2013 #34

No I am not mistaken--I live in MA and I pay attention when I see my governor on the TV. MADem Jan 2013 #35

I was unclear. RudynJack Jan 2013 #36

Frank is not taking the job as the sitting, elected Senator from MA. MADem Jan 2013 #38

Also: if Frank wants the job, why didn't he just say so privately? allrevvedup Jan 2013 #41

He does NOT want the seat. The governor has already said he will NOT appoint a candidate to the job MADem Jan 2013 #48

He obviously wants the seat. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #49

No--he wants the INTERIM appointment. If he wanted the seat, he'd declare and run for it. MADem Jan 2013 #54

A "seat" is a right to sit whether by election or appointment. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #57

Kerry's Senate Term does not expire in 11/2014. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #103

Barney Frank RudynJack Jan 2013 #50

That's what seems odd. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #52

Barney Frank said he is now free to do much more in the private sector. If he wanted he would ask. Sunlei Jan 2013 #42

It seems he's already asked: allrevvedup Jan 2013 #51

Senator Barney Frank-would be first outed Gay Senator in history.The Dream lives on!Equality rules! graham4anything Jan 2013 #53

You won't find a bigger fan of the RudynJack Jan 2013 #55

Incorrect, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is the first out (not outed) gay Senator. Barney would be Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #60

The man is a saint OccupyManny Jan 2013 #56

He's no saint. RudynJack Jan 2013 #58

Tell me the precentage of appointed Senators who actually win re-election. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #61

100% for the last decade. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #63

Incorrect, 5 of the appointed Senators in the last 10 years did not even attempt a run... Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #64

Of the 6 who have run, and all 6 won. n/t allrevvedup Jan 2013 #65

Repeating it does not change the fact that the actual question is 'what percentage of appointed Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #68

The question is whether the interim appt. would help Markey win allrevvedup Jan 2013 #69

No the question was:Tell me the precentage of appointed Senators who actually win re-election. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #72

The can't win reelection if they don't run. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #73

And those who do not run do not run because they feel they will not win. And to look at the Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #74

If Frank was appointed but didn't run, would you say the same for him? allrevvedup Jan 2013 #75

In all of history, only 4 people have been appointed from MA to the Senate. Not one of them Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #77

And Coakley lost their last special election. allrevvedup Jan 2013 #80

She was not an incumbent appointee nor incumbent in the Senate. As you know. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #82

Hey you're catching on. n/t allrevvedup Jan 2013 #83

By that do you mean that you have read the education I'm offering to you and seen the error Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #85

Not one incumbent appointee to the Senate from MA has ever won election to the Senate. Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #87

None of those 4 ran, and Coakley lost. Time for a new strategy. n/t allrevvedup Jan 2013 #88

That is correct, those 4 did not run. Why do you think that is? Because the people do not want Bluenorthwest Jan 2013 #90

This reminds me of the old Certs commercial: "Stop! You're both right!" DFW Jan 2013 #94

Appointed US Senators that won their first election. NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #96

You sorta skipped over an important point ... Tx4obama Jan 2013 #105

I was being hypothetical but I do agree with your claim NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #106

As I understand it the appointed interim senator CAN'T run for the seat- I hope Barney is picked. nt cecilfirefox Jan 2013 #98

Spam deleted by NRaleighLiberal (MIR Team) John_UAC Jan 2013 #102