She detoured at least three times recently, no doubt provoked by the Joe Miller race.
I'm not as confident in Dean Heller. He was vulnerable this time, as a pseudo incumbent running against someone with very strong ties to Las Vegas. We really blew that race by not prioritizing it enough. The way it worked out, we won race after race across the country by margins beyond the polling then donated one in Nevada. Berkley made some mistakes but the party itself should have realized the demographic shift in Clark County made the polling questionable at best, the numbers showing Heller with a decisive lead. Jon Ralston said it could go either way but predicted Heller most likely would win by 1%. That's exactly how I estimated it. Nevada is very easy to handicap, given only two major population areas.
Damn shame because Berkley could have served several terms. Now that seat is most likely lost for the foreseeable.
I don't think Heller will be seriously threatened in 2018, which is a midterm year so the numbers out of Clark County won't be as decisive. It could easily be like Harry Reid barely winning in 1998 against Ensign then cruising relatively unopposed in 2004. Heller was relatively moderate as secretary of state but lurched right when pushed by the GOP. In his first congressional bid he had to withstand a Club for Growth challenge from Sharron Angle, and barely escaped. With six years to work with, I don't expect Heller to be paranoid about casting votes to improve his standing among moderates or independents. I suspect he'll return to the far right or nearby. His concern would be a primary challenge in 2018.
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