Further: 'Rove gave every appearance of genuinely believing that Romney would win. Similarly, Team Romney (and many pundits) thought that professional pollsters as a group were off base. This is a case of motivated reasoning: selective questioning of polls that they found disagreeable. It afflicted the whole right-wing media structure.
Do such biases ever help? What about analytical improvements, like the layers added at FiveThirtyEight? Today I report that by a quantitative measure of prediction error, we did as well in Presidential races as Nate Silver, and on close Senate races, we did substantially better Ė 10 out of 10, compared with his 8 out of 10. Letís drill into that a little. '