9. Romney was losing big time before the first debate
Then, Romney went from ultra-conservative radical in the primaries to Moderate Mitt from Massachusetts in the debate and suddenly started zooming up in the polls.
It was only when Obama put him in his place in the next two debates did the air go out of his balloon. If Obama had called him out on his lies & flip-flops in the first debate and it was a draw, Obama would have romped to a landslide victory by 10 points or more and picked up 400 or more electoral votes.