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Reply #54


Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:23 PM

54. Counting the same voter twice

That essentially what the unskewers were trying to do. A significant chunk of voters stopped identifying as Republican in 2010. I noted it at the time and scrambled for answers. Even in a landslide Republican win the party ID wasn't what it should have been for their side. Finally, many analysts who I respect concluded those were Tea Party -- or nearby -- voters, ones who considered themselves more conservative than the GOP so they preferred to self-identity as independent, almost defiantly.

This year Republican party ID was low but Romney generally led among independents. Hilariously, the desperate unskewers decided they could shove the party ID to equality or nearby, while retaining the Romney lead among independents. As I wrote in the header, it was counting the same voter twice. Once those very conservative "independents" were shifted to Republican party ID, there was no chance the independent pool would remain conservative and very Romney friendly. Every survey indicated Obama would win moderates handily, and he did.

As we learned in 2004, it's always preferable to actually lead the polls instead of molding them to your liking.

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geek tragedy Nov 2012 OP
TwilightGardener Nov 2012 #1
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #2
KurtNYC Nov 2012 #3
BainsBane Nov 2012 #18
warpigs Nov 2012 #58
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geek tragedy Nov 2012 #9
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geek tragedy Nov 2012 #12
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geek tragedy Nov 2012 #31
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progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #42
southmost Nov 2012 #19
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Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #33
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rivegauche Nov 2012 #27
Firebirds01 Nov 2012 #28
wrath of medusa Nov 2012 #37
Thrill Nov 2012 #38
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #39
budkin Nov 2012 #40
progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #41
courseofhistory Nov 2012 #43
Gargoyle22 Nov 2012 #44
Azathoth Nov 2012 #45
Arugula Latte Nov 2012 #46
grantcart Nov 2012 #48
LineReply Counting the same voter twice
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #54
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #55
courseofhistory Nov 2012 #57
Cognitive_Resonance Nov 2012 #59
JCMach1 Nov 2012 #60
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