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2016 Postmortem

gcomeau

(5,764 posts)

6. Ahem...

Reply to politicman (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:59 AM

Oct 2012

"Does anyone think that Obama cannot get a minimum of 85% Democrats to actually vote "

EVERYONE think that Obama cannot get 85% of Democrats to vote. Voter turnout in this country hasn't broken 85% in recorded history.

I think you meant get 85% of Democrats who DO vote, to vote for him. But that's not the same question because it assumes exactly equal proportions of registered Democrats and Republicans will show up to vote, which isn't ever the case like it or not.

The math just isn't as simplistic as you are laying it out here.

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A little math regarding North Carolina [View all] politicman Oct 2012 OP

Because the media wants a HORSE RACE so they can get there ad dollars bigdarryl Oct 2012 #1

Seriously... Jeff In Milwaukee Oct 2012 #3

I'm convinced that it's the media's fault that our country is always divided 50/50. tridim Oct 2012 #4

Bingo! Estevan Oct 2012 #5

Question: What % of Dems will vote for Romney and what % of Rethugs will vote for Obama? OhioworkingDem Oct 2012 #2

check this out politicman Oct 2012 #7

Ahem... gcomeau Oct 2012 #6

registered voters politicman Oct 2012 #12

I think a high turn out for a presidential year is 60%. OhioworkingDem Oct 2012 #16

again registered voters politicman Oct 2012 #18

Ok.. then, gcomeau Oct 2012 #19

Because pollsters assume republicans are more likely voters than democrats. LisaL Oct 2012 #8

Because a lot of Democrats don't vote, and unaffiliated is heavily Republican leaning there. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #9

Dems in NC kansasobama Oct 2012 #10

Those are only registered voters. LiberalFighter Oct 2012 #11

How do you think less will vote in 2012, when the numbers of people who already voted are LisaL Oct 2012 #13

YES BUT politicman Oct 2012 #14

yes but politicman Oct 2012 #17

Aren't 100000s of Ds in NC actually Rs who never changed their registration and vote a full R ticket LonePirate Oct 2012 #15

could be true politicman Oct 2012 #20

because if they don't they can't vote in local democratic primaries dsc Oct 2012 #22

no. barbtries Oct 2012 #21

If no, then why is the state so close despite Obama's superior ground game? LonePirate Oct 2012 #24

i don't believe it is close. barbtries Oct 2012 #26

I think there may be some left over dixiecrats on the registered rolls. SweetieD Oct 2012 #23

The opposite is also true. juajen Oct 2012 #27

A closer look, based on 2008 data. onenote Oct 2012 #25

Thanks. This proves a lot of what I have been saying. LonePirate Oct 2012 #29

There is a Dkos daily diary on NC Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #28