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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Confessions of a political science junkie (me): I love the suspense of these last two weeks. [View all]jeanV
(69 posts)14. No, it's not too hard
Face it, you're outlining an Obama loss.
Amazing. Purely amazing.
I start my thread stating I do not know what will happen (whodunit, remember?)
Let me run the numbers with you. There are 130 toss up electoral votes.
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
VA polls lean Romney, maybe FLA because of Jeb Bush.
PA, NH and NV should go to Obama.
Which leaves you with battle states with Ohio being the most emblematic where polls give Obama two points ahead.
Against which you have the doubt on the Democratic turnout factored in the poll + the Romney momentum.
Both of which can't totally erase a two points lead.
Hence my original question: what are the arguments as of this minute for a win by either side?
And what could tilt things one way or the other within the next two weeks?
I am interested by the reasoning pro/con, not by witch hunting of purported intentions.
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Confessions of a political science junkie (me): I love the suspense of these last two weeks. [View all]
jeanV
Oct 2012
OP
another silly poser. There is overwhelming evidence that RV is as reliable as LV
grantcart
Oct 2012
#3
So, are you just sitting there watching the "end game" from in front of your computer monitor?
Surya Gayatri
Oct 2012
#4
It's pretty clear with your language that you're implying Obama will lose...
Drunken Irishman
Oct 2012
#10
Hahahaha. Bullshit. You are falling for the hype. Luckily, you are in the minority.
morningfog
Oct 2012
#30
The fact that you are focused on rightwing site RCP outs you as a Concern Troll
VirginiaTarheel
Oct 2012
#36