2016 Postmortem

jeanV

(69 posts)

14. No, it's not too hard

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 06:47 AM

Oct 2012

Face it, you're outlining an Obama loss.

Amazing. Purely amazing.

I start my thread stating I do not know what will happen (whodunit, remember?)

Let me run the numbers with you. There are 130 toss up electoral votes.

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

VA polls lean Romney, maybe FLA because of Jeb Bush.
PA, NH and NV should go to Obama.

Which leaves you with battle states with Ohio being the most emblematic where polls give Obama two points ahead.

Against which you have the doubt on the Democratic turnout factored in the poll + the Romney momentum.

Both of which can't totally erase a two points lead.

Hence my original question: what are the arguments as of this minute for a win by either side?

And what could tilt things one way or the other within the next two weeks?

I am interested by the reasoning pro/con, not by witch hunting of purported intentions.

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Highlight:

Confessions of a political science junkie (me): I love the suspense of these last two weeks. [View all] jeanV Oct 2012 OP

As somebody posted, s/he didn't think politics was borng anymore! gateley Oct 2012 #1

I don't regard this as in the same category murielm99 Oct 2012 #2

another silly poser. There is overwhelming evidence that RV is as reliable as LV grantcart Oct 2012 #3

So, are you just sitting there watching the "end game" from in front of your computer monitor? Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #4

I find crime novels to be incredibly boring Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #5

why people can't guess whodunit in crime novels jeanV Oct 2012 #7

And you've missed the point entirely. Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #8

No, thx, I think I got the point jeanV Oct 2012 #11

Apparently you have missed the point Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #27

Cute. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #6

I was not making any prediction, but mentioning the outcome was quite uncertain jeanV Oct 2012 #9

It's pretty clear with your language that you're implying Obama will lose... Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #10

selective attention? jeanV Oct 2012 #12

Because even that equals a loss. Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #13

No, it's not too hard jeanV Oct 2012 #14

Obama has quite the cushion in the OH bank from early voting. morningfog Oct 2012 #20

Polling creon Oct 2012 #15

Agreed jeanV Oct 2012 #17

Yes creon Oct 2012 #26

You see seem to be catching shit Inkfreak Oct 2012 #16

Thx n/t jeanV Oct 2012 #18

The game has never changed, there is no game changer coming. morningfog Oct 2012 #19

The game changed after the first debate jeanV Oct 2012 #21

LOL ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #23

Hahahaha. Bullshit. You are falling for the hype. Luckily, you are in the minority. morningfog Oct 2012 #30

It's the RCP Map, however click on "No Toss Ups" kalli007 Oct 2012 #33

Please tell me you've heard.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #22

Agreed on states, not on RCP jeanV Oct 2012 #24

How can you legitimize a map.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #25

In the same way Summer Hathaway Oct 2012 #28

FiveThirtyEight still indicates sigs of a close race jeanV Oct 2012 #29

Never said it wasn't close ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #32

Agreed (3rd time I say it) jeanV Oct 2012 #34

Confessions of a concern troll! morningfog Oct 2012 #31

don't forget to look under your bed jeanV Oct 2012 #35

I answered it upthread. Your premise is wrong. morningfog Oct 2012 #37

The fact that you are focused on rightwing site RCP outs you as a Concern Troll VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #36

TPM is currently down jeanV Oct 2012 #38

FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics maps identical (Oct 26) jeanV Oct 2012 #39

For those of you who didn't believe me when I said there would be political suspense jeanV Oct 2012 #40