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2016 Postmortem

Welcome_hubby

(312 posts) Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:20 AM Oct 2012

PPP vs. Rasmussen in 2008. Who was better predicting swing state results? [View all]

I have the states that I believe we care the most about at the moment, with a matchup of PPP vs. Rasmussen and how accurate they were in predicting the 2008 results.

Final election results are always at the top:

PPP vs. Rasmussen in 2008. Who was better?

Virginia: Obama won by 6%
PPP prediction: Obama +6
Rasmussen prediction: Obama +4
Winner: PPP

Ohio: Obama +5%
PPP: Obama +2
Rasmussen: Tie
Winner: PPP

Florida: Obama +3
Rasmussen: McCain +1
PPP: Obama +2
Winner: PPP

Colorado: Obama +9
Rasmussen: Obama +4
PPP: Obama +10
Winner: PPP

In Iowa, PPP did not poll in early november, so I won't make a comparison.

Source: Realclearpolitics.com

18 replies

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Highlight:

PPP vs. Rasmussen in 2008. Who was better predicting swing state results? [View all] Welcome_hubby Oct 2012 OP

Great work. woolldog Oct 2012 #1

Thanks for the info.... skeewee08 Oct 2012 #2

When Nate Silver did his analysis of pollsters cleduc Oct 2012 #3

Thank You DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #4

Forget PPP vs. RAS, the fact that Obama did as well or better in final result is what excites me. Dawgs Oct 2012 #5

Don't Forget The Final RCP Average In NC Showed O Losing By .07 And He Won By .03/nt DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6

What you said, Dawgs! Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #9

But that was 2008 when people were itching for anything not Bush. boingboinh Oct 2012 #11

Or, it means that PPP and Rasmussen weight their numbers in a way that helps the GOP. Dawgs Oct 2012 #16

And that wouldn't show in the polling.... hoboken123 Oct 2012 #17

Also, doesn't Rasmussen tend to change its final pre-elect. poll estimates toward the D? spooky3 Oct 2012 #7

Well done, Welcome. Very useful for assessing the Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #8

Thats why outsideworld Oct 2012 #10

Well, if this is true then helpisontheway Oct 2012 #12

No. He's not. The PPP leans republican. Did you miss that? progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #14

PPP is more reliable than Rasmussen, but ProSense Oct 2012 #13

Real Clear Politics is right wing. Period. You have no info on what these polls actually were. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #15

Gravis, because with a Gravis call you also get a free trip to Florida grantcart Oct 2012 #18