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Tue Oct 16, 2012, 04:13 PM

 

Here's why the polls are rigged, reasons you can relate to... [View all]

1) About 1 in 3 people who are registered to vote and voted in 2008 do NOT NOW have home land-line phones. These are the "likely voters", but two million people have gone from being 14 to being 18 between those years, almost ALL of them have cell phones!

2) Only some of those people with only cell phones answer calls from unknown numbers, (they are smart enough to wait for the message ...if there is one... and reply by calling back to a number they do not recognize), and no polls take call-backs.

3) People who have already voted don't bother with polls, they are NOT about to say that they are "undecided", or voting for Romney even if they already voted for Romney.. they simply won't answer, won't participate. So a few of the 25% Romney early voters don't reply to polls, figure that in, they don't bother to reply, which means about 1-3% of the total likely voters are actually early voters are not counted, since they don't answer polls. (This is kind of convoluted, but it says that Romney voters answer polls only because they haven't yet voted, and will vote for Romney about 80-90% of the time they say they will, otherwise they probably don't vote!).

4)Most Obama supporters don't get polled, they are already Democrats, already union members on some list somewhere, so their phone numbers are excluded from polling.

5) People between 18-30 and 55-90 who work on political campaigns are not likely to be home to be polled, and those between 18-30 are unlikely to be home to take a call between 9AM and 9 PM half the time. Those people have too busy a life to answer a poll, they are more likely to be Democrat, because of their age, more likely to vote Democrat, but just not answer home phones from people they don't know, or whose caller ID comes up "unknown" when pollsters call them when they are home. They just go out and vote for Obama someday before or on Nov 6th, and don't bother with calls from pollsters, or just hang up on them if they pick up when called.

BOTTOM LINE:

ANY poll conducted by phone shows a distict REPUBLICAN/ROMNEY bias, since more people who are able to answer a poll are home alone with nothing else to do, are wiling to express their opinions, are NOT working for Romney or Obama or any Democrat or Republican,

The simple facts: people who poll either home or 2012 cell phones with caller ID, few of the caller ID phones, (most of America) will get polled accurately, and most of them are young, active, concerned people; people who don't want to reveal their identity, or who are too busy living, most likely Democrats, not fearful Republicans.

Conclusion: polling by phone is a dead statistical method in the USA, it simply is very Republican, (translate old, unsophisticalted phone type-totally-unsophisticated) biased.


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