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Response to johnlucas (Reply #41)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:27 PM

42. You are right that this isn't 2008. But that's not necessarily a positive

In 2008, McCain had to deal with the fact that Bush had been a complete and total disaster. So a lot of folks who might otherwise have voted for a repub were open to supporting a Democrat, even an African American. But by 2010, a whole bunch of those voters were unhappy with the economy and swayed by an unrelenting campaign against Obama on every possible front. While the President wasn't on the ballot in 2010, it would be most foolish to ignore the extent to which 2010 was a refendum on his presidency to that point.

Now, advance forward a couple of years. The economy is improving, despite repub efforts to thwart that improvement and their drumbeat campaign trying to convince people how bad things are and how its all Obama's fault. But the idea that Obama will recover the support he lost from 2008 and add more? Not happening.

No, a lot of repubs aren't thrilled with Romney. Those on the far far right don't trust him. Those on the moderate side think he's run a bad campaign. But their united by their absolute, visceral opposition to President Obama. Based on that alone, I don't see Romney doing worse than McCain. Yes, some votes will be siphoned off by Johnson. Some Ron Paul supporters will stay home. But some of those Ron Paul supporters may well have been Obama supporters last time around.

I think you are painting a very rosy scenario with little hard evidence to back it up. The hard evidence -- past results, current polls, absolutely does not support your conclusion. I guess we will know who is right in a few weeks. For now, if I had to bet, I'd say its a 6 point margin in the popular vote at best, probably less than that.

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johnlucas Oct 2012 OP
Drale Oct 2012 #1
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johnlucas Oct 2012 #41
LineLineLineLineLineLineLineReply You are right that this isn't 2008. But that's not necessarily a positive
onenote Oct 2012 #42
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johnlucas Nov 2012 #85
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #19
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