Response to FBaggins (Reply #28)
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:30 AM
ProSense (113,376 posts)
32. Oh please, cut the crap
The polls are currently being skewed by plethora of RW and fly-by-night polls (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021530460). Others, including Gallup and Reuters show no real movement.
Although Nate Silver factors in these polls, he even admits they're right leaning.
It might be noted that some of the state polls released on Friday were from firms that have had Republican-leaning results, and they might slightly exaggerate his standing. It is unlikely, for instance, that Mr. Romney would win New Hampshire by four percentage points right now, as implied by an American Research Group poll of the state.
A lot of right-leaning polls dragging down the averages. It's impossible to get an accurate picture of the race from mostly right-leaning polls.
Now for comparison to 2008 (and remember the dynamics were completely different), leads that translated into wins are now seen as close because people are comparing them to the winning margin and not the poll margins. The poll margins showed a completely different picture. Note for example OH and WI. The margins weren't as big as they are now.
Battleground polling snapshot: Romney regresses
The current numbers are from the TPM polling composite. The four-year-ago numbers are from exactly four years ago, or Oct. 3, 2008. The final '08 margin—a new column on this chart—is the final vote results.
As some of you might quickly notice, Missouri is back on the chart! That 4.7-point Romney advantage feels big and difficult to overcome, right? Well, Romney faces equally daunting or bigger deficits in five of the remaining contested states. No one really thinks Missouri will turn Blue this year, and no one is spending money on the presidential race. So the fact that it is closer than states that Romney is spending millions in is pretty darn hilarious.
It also gives Romney another state in which he's above the 45s—one of just two in this list of 10 states plus the national composite.
North Carolina, by the way, was a slight Obama lead yesterday in the composite, until a new Rasmussen poll this morning turned it Red again. As it's pretty obvious at this point, the state will come down to GOTV.
Every time I plug new numbers into this chart for this feature, I think, "Lookit that, Romney is going backwards again!" I decided to see if my perception was reality, so I compared Romney's level of support in the polling composite to what he was receiving a little over a month ago:
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Replies to this discussion thread
|Blue Owl||Oct 2012||#1|
|Shivering Jemmy||Oct 2012||#31|
Oh please, cut the crap
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