HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Politics 2014 (Forum) » ELECTION SPOILER: Obama w... » Reply #29

Reply #29


Response to Daniel537 (Reply #28)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:31 PM

29. You might wanna read this: "History says be skeptical of presidential polls"

I use polls for toilet paper to put it euphemistically.

The media is invested in a "horse race".
Reality doesn't care with the media wants.

History says be skeptical of presidential polls

Some excerpts for ya.

Both Gallup and The American Presidency project provide handy looks at polling and results from previous presidential elections. Often, the final polls were pretty close to the final outcomes, but there have been far too many cases of polling being notably off the mark, as well as instances of elections changing rather dramatically in the final weeks.

In 2008, the final Gallup poll of likely voters put Obama at 53 percent and John McCain at 42 percent. Obama won 52.6 percent to 46.0 percent. Spot on with Obama, but underestimating McCain by four points.

Back in 1940, the last poll (of adults) on Oct. 31 had President Franklin Roosevelt leading Republican Wendell Willkie by a mere47 percent to 45 percent. FDR wound up winning big, by 54.7 percent to 44.8 percent. A similar phenomenon occurred in 1944, with a Nov. 3 poll putting FDR up by only 48 percent to 47 percent versus Thomas Dewey. FDR again won by a rather handy 53.4 percent to 45.9 percent.


Check it.

As for elections shifting in the late stages, in 2000, an Oct. 6 poll had George W. Bush at 48 percent and Al Gore at 41 percent, and as late as Oct. 26, Bush was up among likely voters in the Gallup poll by 52 percent to 39 percent. Again, the final vote was Gore 48.4 percent and Bush 47.9 percent.

Most dramatic, on Oct. 27, 1980, Gallup had President Jimmy Carter beating Ronald Reagan by 45 percent to39 percent. Of course, Reagan won by 50.7 percent to 41.0 percent.

And in 1976, the Gallup poll on Oct. 30 had President Gerald Ford at
47 percent and Jimmy Carter at 46 percent. Carter won 50.1 percent to 48.0 percent.


I leave you with this last line from article author Raymond J. Keating.

The big lesson? Donít be surprised if things diverge, perhaps quite markedly, on Election Day compared to what even the most recent polls communicate, never mind polls taken a month away from when people actually cast their ballots.

John Lucas

P.S.: Remember that Dewey Defeated Truman.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 127 replies Author Time Post
johnlucas Oct 2012 OP
Drale Oct 2012 #1
Coyotl Oct 2012 #50
freshwest Nov 2012 #78
johnlucas Nov 2012 #123
WeekendWarrior Oct 2012 #2
johnlucas Oct 2012 #3
immoderate Oct 2012 #4
johnlucas Oct 2012 #5
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #52
freshwest Nov 2012 #79
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #104
GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #6
mrsadm Nov 2012 #92
graham4anything Oct 2012 #7
tman Oct 2012 #8
johnlucas Oct 2012 #25
cheezmaka Oct 2012 #63
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #9
johnlucas Oct 2012 #11
Codeine Oct 2012 #14
johnlucas Oct 2012 #15
onenote Oct 2012 #38
johnlucas Oct 2012 #41
onenote Oct 2012 #42
rbrnmw Oct 2012 #47
johnlucas Nov 2012 #85
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #19
johnlucas Oct 2012 #24
morningfog Oct 2012 #17
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #18
morningfog Oct 2012 #20
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #21
morningfog Oct 2012 #22
johnlucas Oct 2012 #23
freshwest Nov 2012 #80
onenote Nov 2012 #81
johnlucas Nov 2012 #82
onenote Nov 2012 #83
johnlucas Nov 2012 #84
bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #10
johnlucas Oct 2012 #12
Kteachums Oct 2012 #13
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #16
johnlucas Oct 2012 #26
fujiyama Oct 2012 #27
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #54
johnlucas Oct 2012 #57
freshwest Nov 2012 #98
johnlucas Nov 2012 #108
freshwest Nov 2012 #110
Daniel537 Oct 2012 #28
LineLineReply You might wanna read this: "History says be skeptical of presidential polls"
johnlucas Oct 2012 #29
Daniel537 Oct 2012 #31
onenote Oct 2012 #39
johnlucas Nov 2012 #76
thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #30
johnlucas Oct 2012 #35
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #32
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #53
freshwest Nov 2012 #102
anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #33
CheapShotArtist Oct 2012 #34
johnlucas Oct 2012 #49
mstinamotorcity2 Oct 2012 #36
johnlucas Oct 2012 #43
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #37
johnlucas Oct 2012 #40
struggle4progress Oct 2012 #44
CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2012 #45
jzodda Oct 2012 #46
johnlucas Oct 2012 #69
jzodda Oct 2012 #71
johnlucas Oct 2012 #72
freshwest Nov 2012 #111
rbrnmw Oct 2012 #48
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #55
lib87 Oct 2012 #58
freshwest Nov 2012 #99
johnlucas Nov 2012 #120
freshwest Nov 2012 #121
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #51
whttevrr Oct 2012 #56
johnlucas Nov 2012 #119
eridani Oct 2012 #59
johnlucas Nov 2012 #74
s-cubed Oct 2012 #60
johnlucas Nov 2012 #88
whttevrr Oct 2012 #61
brooklynite Oct 2012 #62
GetTheRightVote Oct 2012 #64
cheezmaka Oct 2012 #65
lunamagica Oct 2012 #66
johnlucas Oct 2012 #70
JustAnotherGen Oct 2012 #67
johnlucas Oct 2012 #68
freshwest Nov 2012 #91
johnlucas Nov 2012 #93
freshwest Nov 2012 #94
whttevrr Oct 2012 #73
musical_soul Nov 2012 #75
Andy Stanton Nov 2012 #77
BlueCaliDem Nov 2012 #86
johnlucas Nov 2012 #87
Stardust Nov 2012 #89
johnlucas Nov 2012 #90
freshwest Nov 2012 #97
joejoejoe Nov 2012 #95
hrmjustin Nov 2012 #96
OneGrassRoot Nov 2012 #100
Whisp Nov 2012 #101
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #103
blue sky at night Nov 2012 #105
johnlucas Nov 2012 #106
GallopingGhost Nov 2012 #107
johnlucas Nov 2012 #115
Lil Missy Nov 2012 #109
Cha Nov 2012 #112
Iwillnevergiveup Nov 2012 #113
rizlaplus Nov 2012 #114
Whisp Nov 2012 #116
jenneferelud Nov 2012 #117
johnlucas Nov 2012 #118
freshwest Nov 2012 #122
big_dog Nov 2012 #124
CorBlimeyGuvnor Nov 2012 #125
Whisp Nov 2012 #126
johnlucas Nov 2012 #127
Please login to view edit histories.