5. It is still going to be the swing states that decide
I think the debate was won by Obama on substance. Romney responded that he wasn't going to do what Obama said but didn't give any details about how it was different or what he would do. That's easy stuff.
Also, I watched CNN who had a ticker on the screen and it was for Colorado independents (men and women). They consistently gave Obama higher marks upt to 100 at times and rarely up that high for Obama. Romney dipped below 50 about 5-6 times while Obama never did. On education and health care, Obama received a definite win. Women overall were rating Obama higher than men and Romney. Overall I'd say with them Obama won about 60 to 40 or in that general range give or take a few. 15-20% edge. On some issues and specific statements as I said Obama was as much as 20 to 30 pts. ahead of Romney
I think in swing states it will be about the same. But as Nate Silver of Five thirty eight says, the challenger is often perceived as the winner and gets a bounce.
It doesn't really matter what pundits thought or voters nationally thought for the most part (unless a lot of peple voter on punditry), it is what the swing voters think and I think he will win with them.
It aggravates me though that commentary by pundits and R supporters didn't look at the substance in the answers and lack of details on Romney's part but many people in this country vote on sounbites and that's unfortunate.