Response to Jim Lane (Original post)
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:22 PM
1StrongBlackMan (24,996 posts)
4. Okay ...
I read it ...
1. The pollsters' models of the electorate are based on 2008, but this year, black, Latino, and young voters won't turn out in the same numbers.
That is wishful thinking ... The African-American electorate is fully energized, thanks to the gop voter suppression efforts ... If you want someone to do something; make it clear that you don't want them to do it.
The Hispanic electorate (with the exception of the Cuban electorate) is fully engaged, thanks to gop anti-immigration efforts.
Now the young? I don't know.
2. "In many swing states, Obama is polling under 50 percent, and I bet undecideds will go heavily for the challenger."
I suspect ... not after this week (the video). Wishful thinking.
3. The economy is in bad shape, and if Romney keeps hammering that point, Americans won't re-elect the President.
Again, wishful thinking. The polls have President Obama trending positive/even on the question of "who will do best with the economy?" and as stated above, the video will likely further impact those numbers.
4. Conservatives are more motivated. This is the most original of the five so I'll quote it in full:
Put simply, Romney "will win because conservatives know what is at stake and we know we can't afford to lose," says Karin McQuillan at American Thinker (link here). Republicans are more enthusiastic and more engaged this year, thanks largely to the Tea Party fervor that swept us into power in 2010. And the reason is clear: "When one side realizes they are fighting for their lives and their country, and the other side thinks Obama is a nice, middle-of-the-road guy handed a hard problem, who will win?" The Right side, of course.
The OP talks about the gop voters being energized and cites to "teaparty fervor." Apparently, the OP didn't run that claim by teaparty activist, Erick Erickson, who is taking romney to task for not embracing the teaparty and base conservatives ... I believe his words were: "(something to the effect) romney supporters are ABO (Anyone but Obama) voters who will (may) go to the polls and pull the lever for romney; but will not canvass, phonebank, or otherwise, work for a romney win."
The only ones in the gop that are "motivated" are the small percentage (23%) of "in the bag/hair on fire" republicans ... and an argument can be made that the establishment republicans are hoping for a top to bottom blow out in order to purge the crazy and allow them to re-form the party.
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