Reply #95

In the discussion thread: Bill Clinton advises President Obama on Gun Control: 'Don't Bother' [View all]

Thu Apr 26, 2012, 09:28 AM

95. Appalling lack of understanding about statistical analysis

I wish they taught better mathematical logic and statistical analysis in school.

Alpha Hypothesis: Increasing the number of guns will increase the amount of crime in society

Null Hypothesis: The increasing number of guns has no affect on the amount of crime in society

A simple look at the trends shows you must reject your Alpha, as you cannot support the requirements to accept. Thus, you MUST accept the null hypothesis. This does not mean there aren't other factors resulting in increases or decreases in crime. It means you can't ascribe any correlation between gun ownership and crime.

Please note, this isn't a response to bongbong specifically, but to the entire sub thread. I'm addressing the faulty logic being displayed. Specifically, the accusation that more guns means less crime. That's never been the assertion and that cannot be sustained statistically either.

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Replies to this discussion thread

108 replies	Author	Time	Post
Bill Clinton advises President Obama on Gun Control: 'Don't Bother' [View all]	Atypical Liberal	Apr 2012	OP
How much of Kenya is urban??????	HereSince1628	Apr 2012	#1
FYI, we don't appreciate birther nonsense here. n/t	TPaine7	Apr 2012	#6
But we do appreciate humor, and that was funny. so FYI, chill the fuck out.	Schema Thing	Apr 2012	#8
Your sarcasm meter appears broken. nt	TheWraith	Apr 2012	#10
Lighten up Francis	Spoonman	Apr 2012	#61
Apparently this was sarcasm or humor and I missed the joke. If that's the case, mea culpa.	TPaine7	Apr 2012	#35
Do you have a link for this?	TheWraith	Apr 2012	#2
Oops, forgot link	Atypical Liberal	Apr 2012	#42
thats the kind of thinking	tapermaker	Apr 2012	#3
Actually no, they're much less accessible now than ever before.	TheWraith	Apr 2012	#4
can you explain it? Is it because of more guns?	DrDan	Apr 2012	#7
Can you explain it?	TheWraith	Apr 2012	#9
Wrong, wrong, wrong!	DonP	Apr 2012	#13
You wouldn't be so happy to see unicorns	OriginalGeek	Apr 2012	#33
and how do you justify that conclusion?	DrDan	Apr 2012	#14
Scientific studies?	Clames	Apr 2012	#21
please share	DrDan	Apr 2012	#22
Get to work.	Clames	Apr 2012	#39
so you want me to prove your claim . . .	DrDan	Apr 2012	#43
I don't need the proof.	Clames	Apr 2012	#87
About this talking point...	DanTex	Apr 2012	#46
No - it just means that millions of Americans can own guns responsibly.	hack89	Apr 2012	#12
like in Sanford Florida?	DrDan	Apr 2012	#15
Anecdotes are not statistics	Glaug-Eldare	Apr 2012	#16
he certainly was a gun owner, a ccp-er as well, now wasn't he	DrDan	Apr 2012	#17
Uh...so? What does the demonstrate?	Glaug-Eldare	Apr 2012	#18
it shows that CCPers are not as pure as gun enthusiasts would like to portray	DrDan	Apr 2012	#19
Because you said a single city name?	Glaug-Eldare	Apr 2012	#20
ridiculous . . . and we both know it	DrDan	Apr 2012	#23
Yes, your logic is ridiculous	Glaug-Eldare	Apr 2012	#25
So what are you trying to prove?	Clames	Apr 2012	#24
1? . . . here is another from this morning	DrDan	Apr 2012	#27
Oh I sorry,	AH1Apache	Apr 2012	#29
Wow, one name	AH1Apache	Apr 2012	#26
yep - pretty much	DrDan	Apr 2012	#28
So what are you doing to repeal CCW laws?	AH1Apache	Apr 2012	#30
OK, so... You admit that your position is emotionally based	HALO141	Apr 2012	#71
at least I am not making up concusions to suit my purpose	DrDan	Apr 2012	#76
No, that's exactly what you're doing.	HALO141	Apr 2012	#80
and what conclusion did I put forth	DrDan	Apr 2012	#81
When you are done with that strawman put him back in the barn.	GreenStormCloud	Apr 2012	#55
So one tragic death is enough to restrict civil rights?	hack89	Apr 2012	#31
I only wish it were only one. . . .	DrDan	Apr 2012	#32
So you should be happy with the steady decline in gun violence	hack89	Apr 2012	#37
I love it	bongbong	Apr 2012	#38
And every time I point out your lie	hack89	Apr 2012	#40
This message was self-deleted by its author	AH1Apache	Apr 2012	#41
"more guns do not mean more gun violence" - can I assume you are suggesting that the drop is DUE to	DrDan	Apr 2012	#44
No - just that more guns did not cause more violence	hack89	Apr 2012	#47
that being the case, you cannot then claim that "more guns did not cause more violence"	DrDan	Apr 2012	#48
Well then we will wait for you to buttress your case	hack89	Apr 2012	#49
please show where I made that claim	DrDan	Apr 2012	#57
So what's your point?	hack89	Apr 2012	#59
the point is - that is a bogus conclusion	DrDan	Apr 2012	#65
Now all you have to do is present your facts that prove your opinion. nt	hack89	Apr 2012	#67
the point I am trying to make, is that the conclusion so frequently stated in this forum is bogus	DrDan	Apr 2012	#68
You think present gun control laws are inadequate.	hack89	Apr 2012	#69
and you think your opinion about being safer with increasing gun sales is anything but "opinion and	DrDan	Apr 2012	#72
There is hard evidence that the rate of gun violence is down significantly	hack89	Apr 2012	#73
please show me the evidence that more guns = less gun violence	DrDan	Apr 2012	#75
Can't. All I can show is a drastic decline in gun violence in the past 30 years.	hack89	Apr 2012	#77
but stricter gun laws might bring it down even further - so understanding the cause would be a good	DrDan	Apr 2012	#78
Perhaps - lets see what you come up with first. nt	hack89	Apr 2012	#79
About this talking point...	DanTex	Apr 2012	#45
And yet your odds of being shot have never been lower.	hack89	Apr 2012	#50
Your odds of being shot are 5 to 10 times lower in other developed nations with tighter gun laws.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#51
We have to get to a bottom line, don't we?	hack89	Apr 2012	#52
say it . . . . "we are safer because of more guns" . . . . that is certainly your implication	DrDan	Apr 2012	#58
No it is not. Guns are irrelevant to the conversation.	hack89	Apr 2012	#60
matter of opinion	DrDan	Apr 2012	#63
Then start posting your facts. nt	hack89	Apr 2012	#66
++	cbrer	Apr 2012	#70
Your odds of being violently assaulted...	Clames	Apr 2012	#54
But their violence crime rate is higher. N/T	GreenStormCloud	Apr 2012	#56
Some higher, some lower.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#64
Oh really?	Clames	Apr 2012	#88
LOL. Even among pro-gunners you stand out for your cluelessness!	DanTex	Apr 2012	#89
Let's read the whole thing and...	Clames	Apr 2012	#90
I'm not sure why I even try and have rational discussions with people like you.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#93
Good - the status quo seems to be working fine then	hack89	Apr 2012	#94
Obviously, the status quo is not working fine.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#96
But those rates are steadily declining	hack89	Apr 2012	#97
Yes, but they could be much lower.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#99
I favor legalizing drugs because of the financial drain on America	hack89	Apr 2012	#100
How about both safety nets and gun laws?	DanTex	Apr 2012	#101
Several reasons	hack89	Apr 2012	#102
Another lie from you	bongbong	Apr 2012	#82
So you have no idea if more guns are a problem	hack89	Apr 2012	#83
Oh boy	bongbong	Apr 2012	#85
And yet you keep spewing...	Clames	Apr 2012	#86
ok - I will simply say that your odds of being shot have never been lower.	hack89	Apr 2012	#92
Yes	bongbong	Apr 2012	#105
Why don't you come back when you can actually prove that assertion? With real studies and facts.	hack89	Apr 2012	#106
asjk	bongbong	Apr 2012	#107
Sorry - thought you were trying to make a point	hack89	Apr 2012	#108
Appalling lack of understanding about statistical analysis	Captain Lee	Apr 2012	#95
If you had actually taken a class in statistics, you'd know better.	DanTex	Apr 2012	#98
Thanx	bongbong	Apr 2012	#104
Yes, appalling	bongbong	Apr 2012	#103
"guns are more accessable now" really?	DonP	Apr 2012	#5
In the 1960's you could order guns by mail order delivered straight to your doorstep.	hack89	Apr 2012	#11
You can if you	Meiko	Apr 2012	#34
That wasn't necessary then.	hack89	Apr 2012	#36
Have you ever actually acquired one, or are you just guessing as to how "accessable" they are?	slackmaster	Apr 2012	#53
Not a whole lot left to say	Spoonman	Apr 2012	#62
Yeah, is this a great country or what?	jeepnstein	Apr 2012	#74
Wise words...	Xela	Apr 2012	#84
Right Bill. Your adventures in gun restriction worked out so well for the Democratic Party.	Simo 1939_1940	Apr 2012	#91

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