Israel/Palestine
In reply to the discussion: Hezbollah Unmasked [View all]Alamuti Lotus
(3,093 posts)also thought about this after I replied yesterday. you bring up a very good analogy--the same web of complex alliances are there, though I don't think it's as much of a powerkeg in the sense that in WWI, all involved parties were really, really eager for some spark to set it all off, since few of the established powers felt they had anything real (ie: their empires) to lose in conflict. Which actually turned out to be royally fucked for most of them in the end, but that's neither here nor there. In this case, any involved sides are hoping (and I dare say, expecting? but are any of these gov'ts geniunely that naive and stupid?) the other sides will instantly fall back at the slightest provocation, since any real protracted engagement would ruin anybody. Economies in the wider sense used to be far less reactive to immediate events, now the potential for instant volatility has any serious powers too jittery to take any firm step in any direction. Thus it is always just business as usual from anybody, whatever it takes to keep the status quo, and all (this is true even considering the US-Iran "standoff" to consider one extreme) disparate parties agree at least on that.
I might just be babbling, it's early and I see it's time to leave for work.