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kristopher

(29,798 posts)
31. A review of China's progress in the last 22 months
Sat Feb 23, 2013, 06:03 PM
Feb 2013

22 months ago:

Will China’s 50 GW goal create a solar bubble? No.
In fact, the dramatic scaling of solar manufacturing capacity is just what’s needed to keeps costs dropping

By Stephen Lacey on May 12, 2011

The renewable energy industry is central to addressing many national problems: Climate change, national security, and job growth. Its biggest international challenge is the Green Giant – the competition from China’s full-court press into clean energy.

Seemingly every week there’s another story about how China is upping the U.S. in the race to develop clean energy. This week’s news is in the solar sector, where Chinese officials say they plan to deploy 50 GW of cumulative capacity in the country by 2020. China only has about 1 GW of solar PV installed today (and no concentrated solar thermal power). But assuming it can meet those targets and continue scaling manufacturing (the country currently holds 57% of global solar cell manufacturing in the world), China is poised to become a vertically-integrated solar leader – not just an exporter of technology.

This story on the Forbes blog seems to have misunderstood the implications of China’s strategy:

“The epic expansion planned for the latter part of this decade may create the world’s first solar-energy bubble. The existing solar supply chain is likely too shallow to sustain growth on this scale. Unless the industry develops scalable infrastructure over the next four years, China’s planned installation of 8 GWs of solar capacity annually between 2015 and 2020 is likely to create severe bottlenecks in the solar supply chain. These bottlenecks could radically inflate the price of basic materials like silicon and create labor shortages that would affect the costs of manufacturing solar modules, designing and installing new solar systems and operating and maintaining already installed systems.”


So are we really going to see a solar energy bubble? That’s extremely unlikely, says Shayle Kann, a leading solar analyst with GTM Research.

“It’s actually nothing crazy,” he says. “I have a hard time seeing this creating a global undersupply – we’ll have 50 GW of module manufacturing capacity by the end of this year. The goal is doable.”

That’s a pretty amazing feat....
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/05/12/208083/will-china-create-a-solar-bubble-not-going-to-happen/


And from the beginning of Feb:
China increases solar target by 67% – yet again

For the fourth time in two years China has increased its solar energy target (- from) 21GW by 2015 to 35GW.

Chinese newspaper The Economic Times reported Shi Lishan, Deputy Director of the Renewable Energy Office of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said, “The target of 35 GW has been confirmed, and will soon be announced.

“The reason for making the adjustment is that the PV industry has been developing very quickly.”

In the last ten years, China’s solar PV cumulative installed capacity has already grown by 67 times the average annual growth...
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_increases_solar_target_by_67_yet_again
There's space for saving in battery and inverter technologies as well. AtheistCrusader Feb 2013 #1
The balance of system costs in the US really need work kristopher Feb 2013 #2
What do you mean by 'steered' anyway. ... CRH Feb 2013 #4
'Steered' means it follows the sun for improved efficiency. AtheistCrusader Feb 2013 #5
Thank you for the thorough explanation, n/t CRH Feb 2013 #7
China's government is not owned by international petroleum corporations nt msongs Feb 2013 #3
But it is run by slave labor dbackjon Feb 2013 #8
Not at all... kristopher Feb 2013 #11
Can you prove that? dbackjon Feb 2013 #12
Another nuclear fan that is allergic to hard data... nt kristopher Feb 2013 #17
Since you never provide hard data, LMAO at you dbackjon Feb 2013 #18
That's what they'll sell them for... FBaggins Feb 2013 #6
But don't bitch when U.S. manufacturers shut down OnlinePoker Feb 2013 #9
Do you have any actual data to back up your claims? kristopher Feb 2013 #10
Try Google. Anyone with a brain and an open mind knows this. dbackjon Feb 2013 #13
This message was self-deleted by its author NNadir Feb 2013 #14
Slight exageration on wages OnlinePoker Feb 2013 #15
That I knew but it doesn't quantify the impact on final price. kristopher Feb 2013 #16
Environmental factors are the largest contributor to costs. joshcryer Feb 2013 #19
No, they aren't - it isn't even a factor big enough to count. kristopher Feb 2013 #20
That's not an environmental response, that's an economics response. joshcryer Feb 2013 #21
You made an inaccurate argument about the economic effect of environmental regulation. kristopher Feb 2013 #22
And you returned with nothing about the environment. joshcryer Feb 2013 #23
Once more for the hard of hearing kristopher Feb 2013 #24
The external costs of pollution are not "virtually nil." joshcryer Feb 2013 #25
. kristopher Feb 2013 #26
Pollution has a long term economic effect, kristopher. joshcryer Feb 2013 #27
that's not what you were talking about kristopher Feb 2013 #28
They have to pay the piper either way. joshcryer Feb 2013 #29
It seems like only yesterday that $1/watt was the Holy Grail of solar... kristopher Feb 2013 #30
A review of China's progress in the last 22 months kristopher Feb 2013 #31
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Environment & Energy»Chinese Companies Project...»Reply #31