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Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: Chinese Companies Projected To Make Solar Panels for 42 Cents Per Watt In 2015 [View all]kristopher
(29,798 posts)31. A review of China's progress in the last 22 months
22 months ago:
Will Chinas 50 GW goal create a solar bubble? No.
In fact, the dramatic scaling of solar manufacturing capacity is just whats needed to keeps costs dropping
By Stephen Lacey on May 12, 2011
The renewable energy industry is central to addressing many national problems: Climate change, national security, and job growth. Its biggest international challenge is the Green Giant the competition from Chinas full-court press into clean energy.
Seemingly every week theres another story about how China is upping the U.S. in the race to develop clean energy. This weeks news is in the solar sector, where Chinese officials say they plan to deploy 50 GW of cumulative capacity in the country by 2020. China only has about 1 GW of solar PV installed today (and no concentrated solar thermal power). But assuming it can meet those targets and continue scaling manufacturing (the country currently holds 57% of global solar cell manufacturing in the world), China is poised to become a vertically-integrated solar leader not just an exporter of technology.
This story on the Forbes blog seems to have misunderstood the implications of Chinas strategy:
So are we really going to see a solar energy bubble? Thats extremely unlikely, says Shayle Kann, a leading solar analyst with GTM Research.
Its actually nothing crazy, he says. I have a hard time seeing this creating a global undersupply well have 50 GW of module manufacturing capacity by the end of this year. The goal is doable.
Thats a pretty amazing feat....
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/05/12/208083/will-china-create-a-solar-bubble-not-going-to-happen/
In fact, the dramatic scaling of solar manufacturing capacity is just whats needed to keeps costs dropping
By Stephen Lacey on May 12, 2011
The renewable energy industry is central to addressing many national problems: Climate change, national security, and job growth. Its biggest international challenge is the Green Giant the competition from Chinas full-court press into clean energy.
Seemingly every week theres another story about how China is upping the U.S. in the race to develop clean energy. This weeks news is in the solar sector, where Chinese officials say they plan to deploy 50 GW of cumulative capacity in the country by 2020. China only has about 1 GW of solar PV installed today (and no concentrated solar thermal power). But assuming it can meet those targets and continue scaling manufacturing (the country currently holds 57% of global solar cell manufacturing in the world), China is poised to become a vertically-integrated solar leader not just an exporter of technology.
This story on the Forbes blog seems to have misunderstood the implications of Chinas strategy:
The epic expansion planned for the latter part of this decade may create the worlds first solar-energy bubble. The existing solar supply chain is likely too shallow to sustain growth on this scale. Unless the industry develops scalable infrastructure over the next four years, Chinas planned installation of 8 GWs of solar capacity annually between 2015 and 2020 is likely to create severe bottlenecks in the solar supply chain. These bottlenecks could radically inflate the price of basic materials like silicon and create labor shortages that would affect the costs of manufacturing solar modules, designing and installing new solar systems and operating and maintaining already installed systems.
So are we really going to see a solar energy bubble? Thats extremely unlikely, says Shayle Kann, a leading solar analyst with GTM Research.
Its actually nothing crazy, he says. I have a hard time seeing this creating a global undersupply well have 50 GW of module manufacturing capacity by the end of this year. The goal is doable.
Thats a pretty amazing feat....
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/05/12/208083/will-china-create-a-solar-bubble-not-going-to-happen/
And from the beginning of Feb:
China increases solar target by 67% yet again
For the fourth time in two years China has increased its solar energy target (- from) 21GW by 2015 to 35GW.
Chinese newspaper The Economic Times reported Shi Lishan, Deputy Director of the Renewable Energy Office of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said, The target of 35 GW has been confirmed, and will soon be announced.
The reason for making the adjustment is that the PV industry has been developing very quickly.
In the last ten years, Chinas solar PV cumulative installed capacity has already grown by 67 times the average annual growth...
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_increases_solar_target_by_67_yet_again
For the fourth time in two years China has increased its solar energy target (- from) 21GW by 2015 to 35GW.
Chinese newspaper The Economic Times reported Shi Lishan, Deputy Director of the Renewable Energy Office of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said, The target of 35 GW has been confirmed, and will soon be announced.
The reason for making the adjustment is that the PV industry has been developing very quickly.
In the last ten years, Chinas solar PV cumulative installed capacity has already grown by 67 times the average annual growth...
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_increases_solar_target_by_67_yet_again
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Chinese Companies Projected To Make Solar Panels for 42 Cents Per Watt In 2015 [View all]
kristopher
Feb 2013
OP
You made an inaccurate argument about the economic effect of environmental regulation.
kristopher
Feb 2013
#22