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Response to NickB79 (Reply #35)

Thu May 24, 2012, 07:56 PM

36. Thank you. That seems a good source.

- For purposes of this discussion I wan't worried about finding a definitive source, and the main reference, which I was comfortable using, was the table Selected Indicators and Top 5 Countries p.15 from
REN21. 2011. Renewables 2011 Global Status Report

http://www.ren21.net/REN21Activities/Publications/GlobalStatusReport/tabid/5434/Default.aspx

- The chart I posted was a rendering that was selected because it was 1) conservative, 2) logarithmic and 3) available from Wiki commons.

- I used GW because it was there and I couldn't readily find current data for generation output.

- If you look you'll see that since I didn't know what was correct and what wasn't I've made no claims about production numbers for 2010. When GG wrote that he plugged in some 2009 numbers but failed to give either the numbers or a source, you'll see question marks in my summary of our discussion in post #29. I presumed he used valid data but since I had nothing to compare it with and since GG was focused on production, I established a ratio from the WEO projections to use in determining a production value for the 2020 projection the wiki chart pointed to. If the 2010 and 2020 ratios from the WEO are, in fact substantially in error, that error is theirs, not mine; a point supporting my view of the IEA/EIA quality when it comes to renewable forecasts. It certainly can't be seen as contradicting my belief.

- The second thing I felt it was important to draw out in the discussion was the curve associated with renewable growth. It is obvious that there are fundamental differences in the way the long term projections are calculated but insisting that the sharp ramp-up of renewables over the period covered by the WEO forecast isn't relevant simply isn't a credible position.

From your Observer source:


And then there is this - the significant undercount of both installed renewable capacity and renewable production that this table from REN21 reveals. What is your opinion of the way solar hot water is never counted?




You ask when I think CO2 emissions will peak and where. I don't know, no one does.
We are decades away from fully eliminating anthropogenic GHG emissions certainly, but I believe we are much closer to the point where the global rate starts declining than most people realize.

In return I'd like to know is how that is really relevant to the discussion at hand? I don't understand the incessant pressure to limit discussion to defeatism and alarm bordering on hysteria. It is a problem we all here accept as urgent. You don't have a lock on the concept of worry or the understanding of the stakes involved. I simply cannot empathize with those who insist on that while hectoring those who want legitimate investigation of the solutions and how we can implement them. In my view of life, that smacks of the faceless crowds that are willing to stand around watching an accident victim bleed out instead of getting to work and at least trying to help. It simply isn't the way I'm built to continue to shout about the problem when the ONLY task at hand is moving us a solution.

Thank you for the courtesy of a civil response, BTW.



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GliderGuider May 2012 OP
Lionessa May 2012 #1
ladjf May 2012 #4
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XemaSab May 2012 #2
phantom power May 2012 #3
NickB79 May 2012 #8
kristopher May 2012 #5
NickB79 May 2012 #9
GliderGuider May 2012 #11
kristopher May 2012 #14
GliderGuider May 2012 #16
kristopher May 2012 #17
kristopher May 2012 #13
NickB79 May 2012 #35
LineLineLineLineLineNew Reply Thank you. That seems a good source.
kristopher May 2012 #36
GliderGuider May 2012 #12
GliderGuider May 2012 #15
kristopher May 2012 #19
joshcryer May 2012 #20
kristopher May 2012 #23
joshcryer May 2012 #24
XemaSab May 2012 #25
GliderGuider May 2012 #27
kristopher May 2012 #29
GliderGuider May 2012 #30
kristopher May 2012 #31
GliderGuider May 2012 #32
kristopher May 2012 #33
GliderGuider May 2012 #34
joshcryer May 2012 #22
kristopher May 2012 #18
joshcryer May 2012 #21
GliderGuider May 2012 #28
GliderGuider May 2012 #6
Nihil May 2012 #26
bvar22 May 2012 #7
Odin2005 May 2012 #10
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