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Response to Demeter (Original post)

Fri Mar 16, 2012, 07:47 PM

9. More signs of a bumpy Chinese landing

So, the many meetings of the leaders of China have came to an end and the Shanghai stock market celebrated by falling 2.6% yesterday. There are a few things wroth noting from the past two days.

As mentioned early on, Wen Jiabao has made it clear that GDP growth target for the year would be 7.5% instead of 8%. And just to recap, the inflation target is 4% yoy, and the M2 target is 14% yoy. Curiously, even though we have long known that the growth target will be lowered, the market did not like this. Bear in mind that 7.5%, if achieved, would be a very decent growth.

There is a possibility that China is already growing less than 8%. J.P. Morgan certainly is declaring that a hard landing has already begun, via Bloomberg:

“If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing,” Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact.”


read more: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/more-signs-of-a-bouncy-chinese-landing/

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