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Response to Tansy_Gold (Original post)

Tue Apr 9, 2013, 09:29 AM

11. Ireland vulnerable to crisis shocks - German economist

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe/ireland-vulnerable-to-crisis-shocks-german-economist-1.1353848

Ireland is the second most likely country in the euro zone to fall victim to renewed financial turbulence, a leading German economist has forecast.

According to Dr Thomas Mayer, former chief economist at Deutsche Bank, only Cyprus faces a more uncertain future while France is ranked fourth.

“Countries in receipt of rescue measures have a considerable way ahead of them before they will be able enjoy the trust of markets again,” said Dr Mayer of the countries topping his “crisis susceptibility” table. His warning follows IMF concerns in its latest report on Ireland that low growth could see a soaring debt-to-GDP ratio.

Proven crisis factors

Dr Mayer based his study on what he called three proven crisis factors: a country’s dependence of foreign capital to finance private investment and state deficits; its budget deficit and national debt; and the size of its financial sector.

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