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Response to Demeter (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 14, 2013, 12:03 AM

4. ‘The deficit chart that should embarrass deficit hawks’ by Ezra Klein

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/12/jed-graham-the-deficit-chart-that-should-embarrass-deficit-hawks/

Jed Graham calls this “the deficit chart that should embarrass deficit hawks”:



“Here’s a pretty important fact that virtually everyone in Washington seems oblivious to: The federal deficit has never fallen as fast as it’s falling now without a coincident recession,” he writes for Investor’s Business Daily.

This is true whether or not the sequester goes into effect.

And we may well have a coincident recession this time, too. According to the initial GDP numbers, the economy shrank slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012, largely because government spending fell. As federal spending continues to fall and the effects are compounded by new tax increases (the payroll tax cut expired in January, for instance), it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see more quarters of negative growth. So, given that the typical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters in which the economy shrinks, this drop in deficits might yet be accompanied by another recession....MORE

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