Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Economy
In reply to the discussion: STOCK MARKET WATCH - Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [View all]Demeter
(85,373 posts)33. Nothing Has Changed: Analysts Expect Greece To Exit The Euro Matthew Boesler
As it so happens, none of the major investment banks really view this weekend's election results out of Greece as having much impact on whether the country will exit the eurozone or not. Citi leaves their odds of a Greek exit between 50 and 75 percent over the next 12-18 months. Jurgen Michels wrote earlier today:
While the outcome of the election, and the likely agreement on an ND-led government has reduced the risk of an exit in the very near term, with the large role of SYRIZA in Parliament and its power to organize protest against further austerity measures and far-reaching structural reforms on the streets, it looks to us unlikely that Greece will be able to fulfill only slightly amended conditions of the MoU.
Morgan Stanley still has the chances that Greece leaves the euro at 35 percent over the next 12-18 months, but that could change. Cross-asset strategist Greg Peters writes in a note today:
To the extent that a government willing to cooperate with Europe emerges, the probability of a near-term eurozone exit, which we put at 35% over 12-18 months, will diminish -- regardless of whether this government can comply with the conditions. This is because Europe could at least say that Greece is back on track, perhaps with a slightly different programme given a a deeper recesision than expected; and the Greek politicians can present a somewhat milder adjustment path to the Greek people.
Credit Suisse still has the chances of a Grexit this year pegged at 20 percent, and that includes a 10 percent chance that the entire eurozone breaks up. Credit Suisse analysts published a note this morning saying the following:
Given the economic costs of a break-up for Greece (10% decline in GDP, 40% inflation) and for Europe (direct costs of around 105% of Greek GDP and indirectly at least a 2% points hit to Euro area GDP), we continue to think that the probability of a Greek exit is low.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-greek-exit-predictions-2012-6#ixzz1yGOaruu5
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
50 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
Will DOJ Investigate if JP Morgan Used LCH.Clearnet As Front to Tank MF Global, Take Customer Money?
Demeter
Jun 2012
#6
Spain Sells 1 Year Bills At Record Post-Euro Yield, ING Says Spain To Need €250 Billion More; German
Roland99
Jun 2012
#16
Hang on, let me check... Yup, word/concept still in dictionary. So why does nobody want to use it?
Ghost Dog
Jun 2012
#28
Europe Launches Ban On All Policy Criticism By Scrapping Use Of Rating Agencies
Roland99
Jun 2012
#30
LADIES, IF THE SHOE FITS: On being an alpha female OFF-TOPIC? MAYBE; OFF-COLOR...
Demeter
Jun 2012
#41
Does the Judge in Your Foreclosure Case Own Stock in the Bank Foreclosing on You?
Demeter
Jun 2012
#47