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Response to Katorama (Reply #25)

Tue Jan 22, 2013, 06:43 PM

27. What to watch: Any changes to the GOP primary process

I have a hard time believing that Christie could make it through the primaries. They are much more conducive to that fundie lunatic like Huckabee.

However, I have also believed for a long time that the electorate is really pretty dumb, or at least apathetic. Only about 5% are actually knowledgeable about the issues, and they split between left and right. The rest just don't want to invest any effort into being part of the process. They make their judgments using SHORT CUTS. Many simply go with the party they have always been with. others go with single-issue things like abortion, gay rights, the debt, guns, or whatever. Those people are pretty predictable, and more-or-less divided 50/50.

The real swing voters mainly vote based on swagger. They don't have a clue what policies would actually be in their best interests or the nation's best interests. They are going to vote for the guy (or woman) who seems to have a real passion and conviction about hos or her positions.

This is how Reagan got elected. Polled on Reagan's policies, people didn't really support him. But they liked his swagger. It worked for W, Clinton and Obama as well. It didn't work so much for GHW Bush, but he essentially inherited a term from Reagan.

Say what you want about Christie, he has the swagger thing down cold. Most New Jersey-ites do, but Christie is way above average in the swagger department. And the thing is that, to most people, he comes across as being pretty sincere -- not just a big-talking jerk. Can that overcome the Christian fundie bias in the GOP primaries? I think it might.



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