In the discussion thread: Non-whites to make up nearly 60 percent of U.S. by 2060: Census [View all]
Response to michigandem58 (Original post)
Wed Dec 12, 2012, 09:51 PM
happyslug (12,609 posts)
10. The Census brings this up every couple of years,
The problem with these calculations is they are based on several assumptions that even the Census questions, including:
1. That the recent massive drop in births to whites will continue, it is way below replacement level, but when surveys of potential parents are taken, most are just waiting for better economic times, thus expect a "White Baby boom" some time in the next 10-20 years as these mother get close to the end of the child bearing years OR the economy picks up. Either one will lead to these parents having more children at that time (Much like Russia had a baby boom under Gorbachev and the reforms he started, but that ended when the hard times under Yeltsin became the norm in the 1990s).
2. Hispanic will continue to have the same rate of Children they have today, Another fallacy. Immigrants into the US, tend to have higher birth rates then native born Americans, but their children tend to have children closer to or at the same rate as native born Americans. Please note Hispanics in Mexico have lower child birth rates then Hispanics in the US, mostly due to that more Hispanics in the US tend to be of child bearing age then is the norm in Mexico (and most of the world, immigrants tend to be YOUNG, ie. in their 20s which is also the age people tend to have children)..
3. This ignores the recent drop off of Hispanic Immigration. To understand the drop off you have to truly understand why people immigrant, it not only takes a place that DRAWS immigrants, but it also takes that PUSHED immigrants out. Under NAFTA and related agreements with Central America Counties. The US was able to dump its Corn into those markets. This push the price of corn so low that native rural farmers could not compete and thus had to find some other source of income other then growing corn. Corn growing was the main type of income for rural Mexicans and Citizens of Rural Central America. This drop in the price of corn, forced the younger farms (men in their 20s and 30s, followed by their wives) to immigrant to the US in search of Income. Thus the huge increase in immigration starting in the 1990s and continuing till about 2010.
Starting in 2005, the price of oil went through the roof and with it the price of Corn, for it was the base material for production of oil from bio-mass in the US. This had the side affect of increasing the price of corn AND increased the production of corn. One "Bad" side affect was the US dropped exports of corn AND the price of corn went up in Mexico and Central America to pre-NAFTA levels. This increase in price of corn removed the "Push" for immigration and you are seeing the effect of that drop in farmers looking for pickers for their crops in California. The old pickers from Mexico and Central America are staying home, they can make as much money growing corn in their own fields as they netted coming to the US.
4. This is based on a assumption that once you immigrant your stay in the US, that has NEVER been the case of ANY immigrant group, let it be Southern and Eastern Europeans of the late 1800s or today's immigrants. The largest two groups that immigrated and did NOT return home were the Irish of the 1830s (Driven the Irish Famine and due to their tendency to join anti-British groups were afraid they be arrested if they returned to Ireland) and the Germans who immigrated after the 1848 revolution (Many were afraid if they returned to Germany, they would be shot). Other immigrants groups (unless they had similar fears) do return home, starting in the late 1800s it became common for people to migrant to the US, work 10 to 2o years and then return home with one's family and money to buy a small farm. Today's immigrants from Mexico and Central America seems to be following a similar pattern. Thus many of today's Hispanic will return home, along with their children (Some of whom will then migrant back to the US, but some will stay home).
Sorry, the US Population has been called becoming minority white for centuries. It was assumed that the South would out populate the North after the Revolution (with African Americans become a larger percentage of the population then the 20% it was then, African American Population is about 12% today).
From the 1820 till 1930 South Carolina was Minority White, majority white in the 1930 census.
From 1840 till 1940 Mississippi was minority white, the 1940 Census was the first time since 1830 the Majority in Mississippi was white:
Just some comments on this report, it is a prediction based on present trends, none of which are expected to continue. The percentage of white population will drop but I doubt below 50% let alone the to far from 2010's 63.7%.
Please note the percentage of the population that is calling themselves white has dropped from 1990's 75.6% for non-hispanic whites to 69.1% in 2000 and 63.7% in 2010. Part of this is increase reporting of Mix race and part of this is the growing Hispanic Population, but as I stated above the increase due to Hispanic migration seems to be heading for a leveling off due to the price of Corn.
People who report themselves as "white only" has changed, with increase reporting of more then one race:
While I do not expect the non-Hispanic white percentage to return to its 1990s 75% level, I do expect it to rebound UNLESS we go into a long term economic debacle (in that case ANYTHING is possible). Baby boomers want to see their grandkids before they die, that puts additional pressure on young women to have children. With Baby boomers we are talking about mostly non-hispanic whites.
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The Census brings this up every couple of years,
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