Response to rivegauche (Reply #3)
Wed Nov 21, 2012, 12:37 PM
happyslug (13,194 posts)
8. The President of Egypt
Hillary Clinton did not have any real cards to play, thus could NOT be to large a factor. She was NOT about to cut off supplies to Israel and Israel knew that and without that ability she had no cards to play.
On the other hand the President of Egypt had several cards to play, cards the Israel did not want to even see, let alone be played. You must remember the President of Egypt has the support of the Moslem Brotherhood, who in turn has support of most Egyptians, almost all of the lower 50% of income earners. Thus if you want a mass meeting in the Streets of Cairo, the President of Egypt can produce it.
This permits the President to provide Israel four options, they get to make the choice:
1. Israel Put out of Gaza and leave it alone.
2. Egypt sends its army into the Sinai and once they move into Gaza and drive out the Israelis. At that point the Israelis attack and drive out the Egyptians. The President of Egypt tells his followers he done all he can do, the problem is the Egyptian military and he gets a chance to purge all the pro-USA officers in the upper ranks of the Egyptian Military which gives him a stronger hand in Egypt and an open excuse to provide military supplies to Hamas.
3. Egypt forces are attacked by the Israelis, and driven out, Repeat Sentence in bold above.
4. As the Egyptian Army moves into the Sinai, Israel attack. Repeat Sentence in bold above.
Notice, it is assumed the Egyptian Army would LOSE, but the key is that such a lost would WEAKEN the Generals of the Egyptian Army and Strengthen the Moslem Brotherhood. Once the options are presented to Israel, they hate option 1, but it is best choice of four bad options for Israel.
In simple terms, the President of Egypt and the Mostem Botherhood wins in all four cases. These are nasty cards, but the President of Egypt holds them given his support from the Moslem Brotherhood. The only down side of the above, is that the US will stop food aid to Egypt, a big concern to the President of Egypt for Egypt is a net food importer. Such a cut off would mean increase starvation among the Egyptian Poor, but the President can blame that on the US and Israel, so it is NOT as bad as it sounds (bad as to the poor of Egypt having no food, but good is that they will NOT blame the President of Egypt for the food shortage).
This is the problem the Israel Government has to face when dealing with Gaza, Egypt of today is NOT the pre-Arab Spring Egypt, which would have protested Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip, but do nothing about it. Today's Egypt must do something for that is what the people of Egypt wants. The Generals may be facing certain defeat, but they dare NOT refuse to go, for then they are just lackeys of the Israelis as far as most Egyptians would be concerned, They dare not overthrow the present government, for the same reason. The Generals must go, do the best they can and expect to be dismissed when they fail.
Thus this is the product of the President of Egypt, he gave the Israeli Government four bad choices and Israel decided to pick the least bad one.
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The President of Egypt
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