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Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:10 PM

U.S. election: How Nate Silver and two university profs went 50-0 in predictions [View all]

Last edited Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Bloomberg

Nate Silver was right. The Gallup Poll was wrong.



Silver, the computer expert who gave Obama a 90 percent chance of winning re-election, predicted on his blog, FiveThirtyEight (for the number of seats in the Electoral College), that the president would receive 51 per cent of the popular vote as he called each of the 50 states, including all nine battlegrounds.

“Nate Silver, right,” said Bill Burton, who moved from the White House to the pro-Obama super-political action committee Priorities USA Action.

Gallup’s daily national tracking poll put Republican nominee Mitt Romney ahead by five points until it was suspended for Hurricane Sandy, and a final national survey released Nov. 5 gave the Republican a one-point advantage.

“These polls are designed only to measure what is happening at the time of that poll in terms of the national popular vote” and are not “designed to be predictive,” Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport said.

With the count in Florida still to be finished, Obama was leading Romney nationwide by two percentage points, 50 per cent to 48 per cent, the Associated Press reported, and won a decisive Electoral College victory.

Two university-based pollsters joined Silver in correctly predicting Obama’s win, and one of them will be dead-on about the electoral vote tally.

Read more: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/article/1284100--u-s-election-nate-silver-and-two-university-profs-go-50-0-in-predictions

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