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Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:51 AM

Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (Nate Silver) [View all]

Source: New York Times

November 6, 2012, 1:43 AM

Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds

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Reply Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (Nate Silver) [View all]
Hissyspit Nov 2012 OP
Trajan Nov 2012 #1
Kolesar Nov 2012 #6
bleever Nov 2012 #2
Hissyspit Nov 2012 #3
tawadi Nov 2012 #10
Liberalynn Nov 2012 #12
graham4anything Nov 2012 #4
fasttense Nov 2012 #5
Hissyspit Nov 2012 #7
proverbialwisdom Nov 2012 #8
tawadi Nov 2012 #9
Rob H. Nov 2012 #11