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Reply #72


Response to AnotherMcIntosh (Reply #71)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:00 PM

72. Following a heuristic (in a false conspiracy theory) can produce errors.

Conversely, the false belief in
Santa Claus is justified, because children generally have good reason to believe what
their parents tell them and follow a sensible heuristic (“if my parents say it, it is probably
true”); when children realize that Santa is the product of a widespread conspiracy among
parents, they have a justified and true belief that a conspiracy has been at work.

~snip~

On one reading of Popper’s account, those who accept conspiracy
theories are following a sensible heuristic, to the effect that consequences are intended;
that heuristic often works well but it also produces systematic errors, especially in the
context of outcomes that are a product of social interactions among numerous people.

The magic bullet theory is strengthened by the reputation of Specter and Warren commission, despite the systematic errors relative to the pristine nature of the bullet and the damage it caused.

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