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Reply #119


Response to Lisa D (Reply #44)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:10 PM

119. You can both be correct.

If the press has been consistently manipulating their polls to favor the challenger after the first debate for decades, then the manipulation would show up routinely in the historical data and might easily be accepted as a normal and predictable phenomenon.

I myself have pointed out repeatedly in the past month or more that the press, the pollsters, the television media, and the corporate boards that control all of them have numerous personal, financial, and professional reasons to keep it a close race. They are trying to create imaginary momentum in hopes that it will create some actual momentum for Romney down the road. But it won't.

About a month outside of the election, pollsters can no longer monkey around with models favoring one candidate or the other. Gallup this week switches to a likely voter model (with which I have other issues) for example.

The pollsters have to start trying to call it straight because they need to call it as straight as they can for the final polls, or their reputations will suffer in subsequent elections.

The result, I believe, is already making itself evident. The polls that have consistently favored Romney the most will have the most dramatic "walk back" to the true numbers, which I believe strongly favor President Obama.

I also guessed that some poll-watchers would find the shift in favor of President Obama inexplicable in light of his debate performance, but I haven't seen that yet.

I am a very, very cynical person, and statistics is hardly my area of expertise. But corruption, well, I've seen enough of that to feel like I know it real goddamned well. Corruption is at work here, but public opinion is in a position to overwhelm it, which I believe was the President's plan the whole time.

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trailmonkee Oct 2012 OP
dennis4868 Oct 2012 #1
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JoePhilly Oct 2012 #3
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Lisa D Oct 2012 #44
zeemike Oct 2012 #53
demwing Oct 2012 #70
LineLineLineLineLineNew Reply You can both be correct.
sofa king Oct 2012 #119
budkin Oct 2012 #49
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