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Response to jsr (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:17 PM

4. The mortar incidents were actually not very significant. Turkey is overdramatitizing this.

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:09 PM - Edit history (2)

What actually seems to be going on behind the scenes is an impasse and lull in the fighting, and some sort of negotiated outcome may be emerging. Reports indicate the following:

* Syria has offered a 6 mile wide DMZ zone so this sort of thing doesn't recur.

* An Iranian brigade of about 500 al Quds troops has left Damascus and returned to Iran.

* After the delivery of 14.5 mm guns, some MANPADS and a large stock of RPGs to the rebels, the US has apparently applied some pressure to cut off further heavy weapons flows.

* Defections by officers and troops of the Syrian Army have slowed to a trickle.

* Defense Secretary Panetta has announced that the US does not want to see the disintegration of the Syria armed forces, given the dangers of al-Qaeda and other Jihadi foreign fighters gaining access to weapons and influence over the opposition in Syria, threats underlined by the attack on the US consulate in Libya and the loss of some 15,000 Libyan MANPADs that remain unaccounted for and presumably in the hands of various militia groups or on the black market. A video posted on August 27 shows a Syrian military helicopter shot down by what appears to be a missile:

(see 00:29-00:40)

* Hillary Clinton is departing as Secretary of State.
* President Obama didn't mention Syria once in his address to the DNC.

Either there is some sort of resolution in the works, or all shit is going to break loose across the whole region after the election - the latter would be the worst-case scenario.

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
jsr Oct 2012 OP
glacierbay Oct 2012 #1
Arctic Dave Oct 2012 #16
Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2012 #2
glacierbay Oct 2012 #3
Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2012 #5
htuttle Oct 2012 #9
Guy Whitey Corngood Oct 2012 #10
LineReply The mortar incidents were actually not very significant. Turkey is overdramatitizing this.
leveymg Oct 2012 #4
glacierbay Oct 2012 #6
arewenotdemo Oct 2012 #11
riderinthestorm Oct 2012 #13
leveymg Oct 2012 #15
bobthedrummer Oct 2012 #21
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #7
glacierbay Oct 2012 #8
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #12
Kolesar Oct 2012 #14
Arctic Dave Oct 2012 #17
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #18
Arctic Dave Oct 2012 #19
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #20
lovuian Oct 2012 #22
Socal31 Oct 2012 #23
Nihil Oct 2012 #24
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