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Response to harmonicon (Reply #11)

Tue Sep 25, 2012, 06:52 PM

13. Here is a rundown of different sources for House race analysis:

The sources run from the extremely-pessimistic-about-a-Dem-takeover, to the pessimistic, to the optimistic.

The Cook Report and Pollster and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics are the most pessimistic (they suggest the Democrats will not take to House even if they win all toss-up races and also win more than half of the “lean Republican” races). Sources Cook Report (http://cookpolitical.com/house) (Solid D 157, Likely D 10, Lean D 16 {S+L+L D = 183}; Toss up 24; Solid R 190, Likely R 21, Lean R 17 {S+L+L R = 228}; Pollster (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/house-outlook) (Strong D 168, Lean D 18 {S+L D = 186}; Toss up 18; Strong R 211, Lean R 211 {S+L R 231}); University of Virginia’s Center for Politics (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/).

Roll Call and the Rothenberg Report and Real Clear Politics are slightly less gloomy but still project almost no chance of a Democratic takeover of the House. Sources Roll Call (http://www.rollcall.com/politics/2012_race_rating_map.html) (Safe D 159, Likely D 10, Lean D 12 {S+L+L D = 181}; Toss up 28; Safe R 193, Likely R 14, Lean R 19 {S+L+L R = 226}); Rothenberg Report (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house); Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html).

There is a nice side-by-side comparison at Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012).

However, super-genius Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium takes a more optimistic views of the numbers:

“Using all polls and median-based statistics to address issues of outlier data gives the median of D+4.0% that I gave. That translates to a narrow 16-seat Democratic majority in an election held today.”

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/.

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Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 OP
oliverrams1 Sep 2012 #1
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #10
AngryOldDem Sep 2012 #2
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #7
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #3
leftyohiolib Sep 2012 #4
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #5
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #6
liberal N proud Sep 2012 #8
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #9
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #15
Norbert Sep 2012 #12
harmonicon Sep 2012 #11
LineLineNew Reply Here is a rundown of different sources for House race analysis:
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #13
harmonicon Sep 2012 #16
Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #17
Kteachums Sep 2012 #14
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