HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » 538: Obama’s Lead Looks S...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 05:46 PM

538: Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones [View all]

Source: New York Times

September 19, 2012, 5:24 PM

Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones


As I observed on Tuesday, and as The New Republic’s Nate Cohn also found, Barack Obama seems to have received a much clearer bounce in some types of polls than others.

Although there are exceptions on either side, like the Gallup national tracking poll, for the most part Mr. Obama seems to be getting stronger results in polls that use live interviewers and that include cellphones in their samples — enough to suggest that he has a clear advantage in the race.

In the polls that use an automated dialing method (“robopolls”) or which exclude cellphones, Mr. Obama’s bounce has been much harder to discern, and the race looks considerably closer.

The difference seems especially pronounced at the state level. Mr. Obama got very strong results in a series of NBC News/Marist College polls last week in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, which included cellphones and used live interviewers. Likewise, Tuesday morning’s series of New York Times / CBS News / Quinnipiac polls had reasonably good news for Mr. Obama in Virginia and Wisconsin.

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/obamas-lead-looks-stronger-in-polls-that-include-cellphones

30 replies, 7127 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply 538: Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones [View all]
Hissyspit Sep 2012 OP
Scuba Sep 2012 #1
Arugula Latte Sep 2012 #13
klook Sep 2012 #25
PatrynXX Sep 2012 #14
ncgrits Sep 2012 #2
budkin Sep 2012 #3
bunnies Sep 2012 #4
Cha Sep 2012 #6
bunnies Sep 2012 #8
tavalon Sep 2012 #21
enlightenment Sep 2012 #10
unc70 Sep 2012 #17
GOTV Sep 2012 #19
emmadoggy Sep 2012 #24
du_grad Sep 2012 #30
mckara Sep 2012 #5
Cha Sep 2012 #7
winstars Sep 2012 #9
Ikonoklast Sep 2012 #12
FailureToCommunicate Sep 2012 #15
KamaAina Sep 2012 #11
progree Sep 2012 #16
Caretha Sep 2012 #18
titaniumsalute Sep 2012 #28
tavalon Sep 2012 #20
DemKittyNC Sep 2012 #22
torotoro Sep 2012 #23
DaveJ Sep 2012 #26
Arkana Sep 2012 #27
Denise21 Sep 2012 #29