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Reply #10


Response to red dog 1 (Reply #8)

Sat May 12, 2012, 11:39 AM

10. No, and I think that is the point.

I think the intent of revisiting the Defense of Marriage Act is to nail the Republicans down on this issue in this particular election year.

I don't pretend to know precisely what is going on with this sudden reappearance of the gay marriage issue (except that I'm delighted to see the President's shift), but I am certain that President Obama and Senator Reid are working together on it. They have worked closely and efficiently together this past 18 months, with unusual success despite Republican delay at every turn.

Here's what I think is going on. I think the President has concluded, only days into the de facto general election season, that his own reelection is in the bag and that he can now concentrate his focus on the real problem this year: the Senate must be retained by the Democrats, but 23 Dems are up for reelection against only 10 Republicans.

I further think that President Obama has come around to the idea of what I call the "Don't F#$% with the Jesus" strategy, after that enchanting scene from The Big Lebowski. He appears to be trying to wrest the gay marriage issue from the Republicans and turn it on them.

What confuses me is that gay marriage has been the clarion call for conservative voters for ten years now. It was Karl Rove's baby. It was the carrot designed to draw the knuckle-draggers from their caves on election day. And it worked like a charm, providing a wisp of plausibility to defend the statistically improbable 2004 election results.

So for the President and the Senate to revive this issue now, there must be some mechanism at work that I do not yet understand.

My best guess at the moment is this: perhaps the Obama Campaign has concluded that Mitt Romney is going to produce a net negative turnout for Republicans, keeping those otherwise enthusiastic homophobes away on election day and allowing the President and Dems to pursue a far more liberal platform than they otherwise would be able to pursue against a more viable candidate.

Senate elections are statewide and sometimes they follow the results of the Presidential elections quite closely. If the President draws his voters out, and Romney keeps his voters home, Republican Senate candidates and incumbents suddenly find themselves without a rock to hide under. Pinning down Republican Senators on gay marriage might be fixing them as targets for the motivated voters who do show up at the polls on Election Day: people with consciences, ethics and empathy--in other words, not Republicans.

One of the things that has convinced me that President Obama is the most astute politician of my lifetime is his unusual ability to turn a terrible idea against its supporters and profit from the damage that it causes them.

I still have no idea how exactly he is going to pull this one off... but I can't wait to see!

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brooklynite May 2012 OP
Kurska May 2012 #1
emulatorloo May 2012 #2
brooklynite May 2012 #3
longship May 2012 #4
Tx4obama May 2012 #5
freshwest May 2012 #6
azurnoir May 2012 #7
red dog 1 May 2012 #8
brooklynite May 2012 #9
LineLineReply No, and I think that is the point.
sofa king May 2012 #10
sofa king May 2012 #11
red dog 1 May 2012 #14
sofa king May 2012 #15
red dog 1 May 2012 #16
sofa king May 2012 #17
red dog 1 May 2012 #18
shcrane71 May 2012 #12
davidpdx May 2012 #13
gratuitous May 2012 #19
24601 May 2012 #20
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