General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: President Obama leaps ahead of Romney in Bloomberg poll; Romney seen as 'out of touch' [View all]CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Typically what happens when an incumbent president wins re-election is he gains in his electoral-vote score. To do that, it would be necessary to have an increase in the popular-vote margin. And that refers to a shift (however small or big).
All the polls I have come across are insisting that this is a 1- to 3-point race, meaning President Barack Obama loses about 4.26 to 6.26 off his 7.26% victory, in 2008, over John McCain.
A 13-point victory would mean gaining nearly 5.75. That means some states President Obama didn't get in 2008 would flip to him for 2012. (I'm looking at Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana as a quartet that would stand out.)
Too early to say?
Well, it's the next-to-final week in June.
Obama is in danger of getting unseated. He's either Woodrow Wilson, nearly 100 years later, or he's going to have to turn this around. And typically an incumbent who gets reduced (in bid for re-election) gets reduced right out of the White House.