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CobaltBlue

(1,122 posts)
35. Not encouraged
Wed Jun 20, 2012, 08:35 PM
Jun 2012

Typically what happens when an incumbent president wins re-election is he gains in his electoral-vote score. To do that, it would be necessary to have an increase in the popular-vote margin. And that refers to a shift (however small or big).

All the polls I have come across are insisting that this is a 1- to 3-point race, meaning President Barack Obama loses about 4.26 to 6.26 off his 7.26% victory, in 2008, over John McCain.

A 13-point victory would mean gaining nearly 5.75. That means some states President Obama didn't get in 2008 would flip to him for 2012. (I'm looking at Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana as a quartet that would stand out.)

Too early to say?

Well, it's the next-to-final week in June.

Obama is in danger of getting unseated. He's either Woodrow Wilson, nearly 100 years later, or he's going to have to turn this around. And typically an incumbent who gets reduced (in bid for re-election) gets reduced right out of the White House.

Bloomberg has polls? Where have I been. nt Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #1
They've had polls for years - just not that often. n/t Dawgs Jun 2012 #7
Kaboom NNN0LHI Jun 2012 #2
That sounds about right. DCBob Jun 2012 #3
sounds like Obama's strategy part I of making Romney look weird is paying off...thanks in large Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #13
Maybe the ads are working. DCBob Jun 2012 #14
Romney has done an excellent enough job of making HIMSELF look weird rocktivity Jun 2012 #23
He has all the famililar affability of Beldar Conehead. hifiguy Jun 2012 #30
But unlike Mitt, the Coneheads have a LEGITIMATE excuse for not quite fitting in as earthlings rocktivity Jun 2012 #33
GOOD one! Nailed it! calimary Jun 2012 #38
Better than my blue mountain coffee this morning malaise Jun 2012 #4
Did that actually mention it? Dawgs Jun 2012 #8
I loved the way everyone was solemnly trashing Bloomberg. CTyankee Jun 2012 #44
My view is that any poll that does not show Obama leading by a distance malaise Jun 2012 #45
You and me both, Malaise! CTyankee Jun 2012 #46
How Nice...Means Nothing... KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #5
True, but Obama's beating Job Destroyer there, too. Fawke Em Jun 2012 #9
That's What I Watch... KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #11
I agree...what a mess we will be in if they get both houses. Surely, surely Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #12
It's The "I've Got Mine" Attitude... KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #19
We Came Real Close To The Abyss... KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #21
at least it will help if Obama has really big coattails to hang on to nt magical thyme Jun 2012 #16
+1, by August rMoney should be done...in the high 30s on approval, he's pandering to a narrow uponit7771 Jun 2012 #20
538 Robbins Jun 2012 #15
There are 50 states, but they don't each vote in a vacuum, especially not in a presidential election Hippo_Tron Jun 2012 #37
DU rec...nt SidDithers Jun 2012 #6
this is the only poll I've seen that type of national edge for any candidate, I'd like WI_DEM Jun 2012 #10
Don't forget 90-percent Jun 2012 #17
Maybe voters are confused as to who Romney actually is...? EnviroBat Jun 2012 #18
Close... Aviation Pro Jun 2012 #40
The Romney campaign is calling this an outlier JohnnyRingo Jun 2012 #22
He can call it what he wants, but the fact is that this Fawke Em Jun 2012 #27
I've been questioning the neck and neck media horse race for months. JohnnyRingo Jun 2012 #28
The Corporate Media is falling all over themselves at this poll. It's like they're incredibly Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #31
K & R Scurrilous Jun 2012 #24
I like the sound of this! Tarheel_Dem Jun 2012 #25
This poll is probably the nearest to truth of all of them graham4anything Jun 2012 #26
I actually noticed that Republicans try to put a few blacks in the background to make it look Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #32
out of touch even among most normal Republicans PatrynXX Jun 2012 #29
What really strikes me about this is Romney's 39/48 unfavorable rating. Fozzledick Jun 2012 #34
Not encouraged CobaltBlue Jun 2012 #35
Don't be so glum. He will win. demgrrrll Jun 2012 #39
I really really like that photo. Can't say exactly why. lindysalsagal Jun 2012 #36
Teaching Romney how to look like he's in touch is like tryin to teach Ralph Stanley Country Western Gman Jun 2012 #41
Gazing stones and secret underwear Kolesar Jun 2012 #42
48 % unfavorable for Romney? This is what Citizens United caused. McCamy Taylor Jun 2012 #43
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