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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Wed Jun 20, 2012, 08:35 PM

35. Not encouraged

Typically what happens when an incumbent president wins re-election is he gains in his electoral-vote score. To do that, it would be necessary to have an increase in the popular-vote margin. And that refers to a shift (however small or big).

All the polls I have come across are insisting that this is a 1- to 3-point race, meaning President Barack Obama loses about 4.26 to 6.26 off his 7.26% victory, in 2008, over John McCain.

A 13-point victory would mean gaining nearly 5.75. That means some states President Obama didn't get in 2008 would flip to him for 2012. (I'm looking at Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana as a quartet that would stand out.)

Too early to say?

Well, it's the next-to-final week in June.

Obama is in danger of getting unseated. He's either Woodrow Wilson, nearly 100 years later, or he's going to have to turn this around. And typically an incumbent who gets reduced (in bid for re-election) gets reduced right out of the White House.

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Arrow 46 replies Author Time Post
bigtree Jun 2012 OP
Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #1
Dawgs Jun 2012 #7
NNN0LHI Jun 2012 #2
DCBob Jun 2012 #3
Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #13
DCBob Jun 2012 #14
rocktivity Jun 2012 #23
hifiguy Jun 2012 #30
rocktivity Jun 2012 #33
calimary Jun 2012 #38
malaise Jun 2012 #4
Dawgs Jun 2012 #8
CTyankee Jun 2012 #44
malaise Jun 2012 #45
CTyankee Jun 2012 #46
KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #5
Fawke Em Jun 2012 #9
KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #11
Laura PourMeADrink Jun 2012 #12
KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #19
KharmaTrain Jun 2012 #21
magical thyme Jun 2012 #16
uponit7771 Jun 2012 #20
Robbins Jun 2012 #15
Hippo_Tron Jun 2012 #37
SidDithers Jun 2012 #6
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #10
90-percent Jun 2012 #17
EnviroBat Jun 2012 #18
Aviation Pro Jun 2012 #40
JohnnyRingo Jun 2012 #22
Fawke Em Jun 2012 #27
JohnnyRingo Jun 2012 #28
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #31
Scurrilous Jun 2012 #24
Tarheel_Dem Jun 2012 #25
graham4anything Jun 2012 #26
Liberal_Stalwart71 Jun 2012 #32
PatrynXX Jun 2012 #29
Fozzledick Jun 2012 #34
LineReply Not encouraged
CobaltBlue Jun 2012 #35
demgrrrll Jun 2012 #39
lindysalsagal Jun 2012 #36
Gman Jun 2012 #41
Kolesar Jun 2012 #42
McCamy Taylor Jun 2012 #43
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