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Response to stevenleser (Reply #66)

Sat May 5, 2012, 08:12 AM

73. People who have died or who are very young are not counted.

I gave you the links. I guess you are not going to read them. The statistics are pretty bad. Try Table A-9 to see what's happening:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

That table breaks it out by ages. The group of those aged 20 and over who were employed dropped by about 150,000. The core - 25-54 years - group of people that were working dropped by about 130,000. It's not just retirements.

These are all seasonally adjusted numbers.

The number of people working full-time (at the bottom of the table) dropped from 115,290,000 to 114,478,000.

812,000 full time jobs gone? In one month? That number is very statistically significant. It's about twice the number needed to reach the 90% confidence interval. Part-time workers increased by about 600,000. The difference is lost jobs. Clearly some establishments are cutting activity, which is dropping hours.

Initial claims really did pop up over the month. All the data we have shows that employment is difficult.

We don't at this time know just how difficult this is going to be, but this is the second bad jobs report.

The birth-death adjustment is for EMPLOYERS (businesses), not people! I'll write this again. The 115,000 new jobs reported in the establishment survey mean that the actual survey showed a loss of more than 80,000 jobs, because the birth-death adjustment added more than 200,000 jobs this month.

All the other data that we have shows that the birth-death adjustment is in error this month, and that we lost jobs.

The real kick-in-the-ass in this report comes from the loss of full-time jobs shown in the Household survey, however. That means businesses are cutting back relatively.

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