Reply #6

In the discussion thread: What If A Collapse Happened And Nobody Noticed? [View all]

Response to cbdo2007 (Reply #4)

Thu May 3, 2012, 10:00 AM

6. Au contraire, mon frere

Last edited Thu May 3, 2012, 10:01 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

Humans have this evolved tendency to assume that the next moment in time will be much like the present or immediate past. It makes planning possible.

However with so many forces in play in a massively interconnected global civilization that has had much of its resilience stripped out for the sake of efficiency it seems likely that the breaking point will happen suddenly. The sciences of complex system dynamics and network theory have large bodies of study on this possibility.

On the other hand, it will certainly be slower in some places than others. Nations that have lots of furniture to burn (like the USA) or those that are more disconnected from the global trade superhighways (like some African nations) may fare somewhat better. In my opinion this is why we're seeing the first signs of global collapse in Europe. They fit neither of the above criteria.

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88 replies	Author	Time	Post
What If A Collapse Happened And Nobody Noticed? [View all]	GliderGuider	May 2012	OP
When you lose vital things that are civilization markers the collapse is on	lunatica	May 2012	#1
In my opinion we are already in the early stages of something resembling	GliderGuider	May 2012	#2
Reading Orlov would definitely reinforce that point of view	pscot	May 2012	#8
In all fairness.. Russian history gives Russians little incentive for cheerfulness..	Fumesucker	May 2012	#12
Yet the Repubs want to argue about birth control	adigal	May 2012	#13
Throw in the very real possibility of Fukishima getting worse	dixiegrrrrl	May 2012	#47
One other ominous sign (oddly enough) is the falling global birth rate.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#3
The birth rate in the US at least should be reflecting the aging of the baby boomers. They did not	jwirr	May 2012	#39
Regarding the neighbours	GliderGuider	May 2012	#40
We are doing that - hoping when they see what we are doing they will follow. So far they think it	jwirr	May 2012	#54
It's falling as women get empowered--I think it's the opposite of collapse--it's the emergence of	diane in sf	May 2012	#56
It probably has multiple causes in different places and times.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#58
Yet none of us will see major effects of the collapse in our lifetimes.	cbdo2007	May 2012	#4
I sincerely doubt that it will take that long.	marmar	May 2012	#5
Au contraire, mon frere	GliderGuider	May 2012	#6
Efficiency is but a secondary effect, the primary cause is greed and profit..	Fumesucker	May 2012	#14
I agree, but the motive isn't the big issue for me -the effect is.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#15
If you don't know first causes it's hard to change the effects..	Fumesucker	May 2012	#23
One of the good things about Occupy was that it pointed out that cause.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#26
The Magistrate made an offhand comment to me once on DU2	Fumesucker	May 2012	#28
I've given up thinking we will be able to hold back the tides of destiny	GliderGuider	May 2012	#30
Yes, in some ways, it's a privilege to be able to witness this period in human history.	bemildred	May 2012	#73
In looking for the underlying cause of greed do not underestimate fear. But I do not see greed as	jwirr	May 2012	#41
Humans also have a tendency to assume they are witnessing the end times....	cbdo2007	May 2012	#22
I read the article and the author asserts that cities will fare the best	adigal	May 2012	#16
Cities will fare better overall until the breakdown becomes severe.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#18
Yeah, when the infrastructure like sewage treatment and electrical grids start going.....	marmar	May 2012	#20
Life expectancy is declining	KurtNYC	May 2012	#17
Yes, those are the signals all right.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#21
Is EU doing anything to preserve their health care situation that would be of importance to this	jwirr	May 2012	#42
All of Europe has universal single-payer health care to some degree	GliderGuider	May 2012	#48
That is what I was afraid of. I think one big problem with a collapse and government programs is	jwirr	May 2012	#55
No it is not	hack89	May 2012	#81
It's best not to over-aggregate things like fertility and life expectancy	GliderGuider	May 2012	#83
Some groups go up, some groups go down	hack89	May 2012	#84
Weather isn't climate, true.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#86
I agree with you.	sendero	May 2012	#7
Totally agree but I grew up in the early 40s and did not have a lot of the modern things we have	jwirr	May 2012	#43
A great many people have not had that knowledge handed down.	FedUpWithIt All	May 2012	#82
True that. I visited an operating "pioneer village" museum a couple of years ago	GliderGuider	May 2012	#85
There are still really good sources of that info available	FedUpWithIt All	May 2012	#87
You are right - I actually began to realize that when I was in college and when I went home I	jwirr	May 2012	#88
I noticed.	Hatchling	May 2012	#9
Yep.	bemildred	May 2012	#10
Oh, you can be sure that the 1 percent knows damn well...	RevStPatrick	May 2012	#11
Inside the Vortex, life and death for the Brutals doesn't matter.	leveymg	May 2012	#19
Hmmmm...sounds like the Capital and the Districts...	lapislzi	May 2012	#25
It also sounds like the situation in medieval Europe	GliderGuider	May 2012	#27
I think you may be oversimplifying medieval Europe	lapislzi	May 2012	#29
And it was a time of fun and plunder. The Crusades and intrigues w/ Second Rome at Constantinople	leveymg	May 2012	#31
Hey, I'm just offering the framework.	lapislzi	May 2012	#36
Actually yes, thanks.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#32
I will read this book!	lapislzi	May 2012	#37
And bubonic plague created new opportunities for the survivors	Lydia Leftcoast	May 2012	#66
Yes!	lapislzi	May 2012	#72
One of the themes of the 70s: we can chose between the castle or the tribe. Unfortunately I	jwirr	May 2012	#45
That's what we're headed for now, with our "civilized" society.	Zalatix	May 2012	#46
Pls tell me Connery's outfit will not be mandatory when TSHTF big time.	dixiegrrrrl	May 2012	#49
Naw, we all have to wear those monkey-suits from Planet of the Apes	GliderGuider	May 2012	#50
That would truly be Shock and Awe - sure to send any enemy running, screaming, pleading for mercy	leveymg	May 2012	#52
On the other hand, collapses are the best way to get rid of bloated empires	starroute	May 2012	#24
An orderly collapse gets rid of the working class.	Zalatix	May 2012	#34
I was thinking this...where I live in upstate NY	adigal	May 2012	#44
Sometimes you kick, sometimes you get kicked.....	marmar	May 2012	#33
Well aren't you the sly one:-)	GliderGuider	May 2012	#38
I've been saying much the same thing for a while now...	chervilant	May 2012	#35
You said it better than I could today.	dixiegrrrrl	May 2012	#53
Thanks,	chervilant	May 2012	#62
Can you please re-post this as a thread so I can K&R it? Thanks!!!	Zalatix	May 2012	#60
I agree. When you see it all listed out like that it really drives the point home.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#61
Thanks!	chervilant	May 2012	#64
Done, and thanks!	chervilant	May 2012	#63
I'm going to go get drunk. Carpe diem, I say :) Seriously, though,	coalition_unwilling	May 2012	#65
Despair is one of the big risks of thinking deeply about these problems.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#68
Interestingly,	chervilant	May 2012	#70
I moved this comment out to the main line to make it more accessible	GliderGuider	May 2012	#71
I heartily concur. That honesty about facing our situation head on is	coalition_unwilling	May 2012	#76
Totally agree...	chervilant	May 2012	#69
To me it's pretty simple...	WCGreen	May 2012	#51
I always say that our civilization is like a rabbit shot on the run:	tblue37	May 2012	#57
Kicking....this is an important read.	dixiegrrrrl	May 2012	#59
K&R. n/t	Egalitarian Thug	May 2012	#67
Can I Kick It?	marmar	May 2012	#74
I'm absolutely thrilled to be alive at this moment in history.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#75
This situation might be just more of the same for our generation(s)	IDemo	May 2012	#77
No question this is far bigger than the past problems we've created.	GliderGuider	May 2012	#80
great post	paulk	May 2012	#78
The American empire peaked during the sixties,	MadHound	May 2012	#79

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